A significant new opinion poll has revealed that Kemi Badenoch's dramatic decision to sack Robert Jenrick, after it emerged he was planning to defect to Reform UK, has won her the backing of a majority of Conservative voters. The survey indicates that the move, described as a shock dismissal, has been interpreted by many as a demonstration of strong leadership.
Tory Voters See Strength in Decisive Action
According to the detailed analysis conducted by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, a substantial 58 per cent of those who backed the Tories in the 2024 general election believe Ms Badenoch's action showed her strength. These voters agreed that it demonstrated she was a 'strong leader determined to show the Conservatives have changed', signalling a potential shift in the party's internal dynamics and public image.
Divisions and Disagreement Remain Evident
However, the poll also uncovered notable divisions. Just over one in four Tory voters, equating to 28 per cent, disagreed with the positive assessment. They viewed the entire episode, where the Shadow Cabinet member was first sacked and then proceeded to defect to Reform, as evidence that the Conservatives still had not 'moved on from infighting and divisions'. This perspective was shared by 48 per cent of voters across the general electorate, highlighting a broader scepticism about party unity.
Cross-Party Appeal and Leadership Perceptions
Ms Badenoch may find further encouragement in the fact that more than a quarter of Reform UK voters, specifically 26 per cent, said the incident showed her in a strong light. In a striking development on leadership, the poll found that for the first time, as many people believed she would make a better prime minister than Keir Starmer as held the opposite view, with 29 per cent supporting each proposition.
The Landscape of Opposition and Economic Confidence
Despite Ms Badenoch holding the formal title of Leader of the Opposition, the survey suggested that Nigel Farage's Reform UK is perceived as mounting the 'most effective opposition' to the Labour government. One in three of all voters, 32 per cent, chose Mr Farage and his party in this regard, with the figure rising to 41 per cent even among Tory voters.
On economic management, confidence appears to be shifting. The poll indicated that 31 per cent of respondents back Ms Badenoch and Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride to hold the reins of the economy, compared to 25 per cent for Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
International Context: Trump's Actions and UK Concerns
The survey was conducted amid the international crisis concerning former US President Donald Trump's bid to seize Greenland and his threats to impose tariffs on the UK and other allies for opposing it. The poll of 5,448 people, consulted by Lord Ashcroft Polls between January 15 and 19, revealed deep unease at these tactics.
A significant 69 per cent of respondents stated they did not like the way Mr Trump 'went about things' and were worried 'about the consequences'. In a humiliating finding for the Prime Minister, only 7 per cent of voters believed Mr Trump paid some or a great deal of attention to Sir Keir Starmer's views. More than half, 52 per cent, thought he paid no heed whatsoever, with a further 34 per cent saying he took 'not very much' notice.
The context of Mr Jenrick's sacking was clarified, with reports indicating the Tory leader acted when it emerged his planned defection was 'designed to be as damaging as possible' to the Conservative Party. This poll provides a comprehensive snapshot of domestic political perceptions intertwined with growing international concerns.
