In an unusual twist ahead of the 2026 State of the Union address, a significant betting frenzy has erupted over which phrases President Donald Trump will deploy during his speech. Prediction market Kalshi has reported a staggering volume of trades exceeding $10 million, as speculators place wagers on the topics and terminology the 79-year-old president is likely to emphasise.
High-Probability Phrases Dominate the Market
According to the latest data from Kalshi, certain phrases are considered near-certainties to feature in Trump's address. Betters have wagered that there is a 96 percent chance he will mention "250," a clear reference to the nation's upcoming 250th anniversary celebrations. Similarly, the word "Trillion" carries 95 percent odds, likely alluding to economic or budgetary discussions. Artificial intelligence, abbreviated as AI, also ranks highly with a 92 percent probability of being brought up, reflecting its growing importance in policy debates.
Sports and Extraterrestrial References Spark Interest
Beyond these core topics, the betting markets indicate a strong likelihood that Trump will discuss major sporting events. Following the US men's hockey team's recent gold medal victory at the Winter Olympics, there is considerable speculation that he will mention the Olympics, the World Cup, and hockey. This was underscored by Trump's meeting with the champions at the White House on Tuesday, just before his scheduled speech.
Another intriguing wager centres on the word "alien," which has an 87 percent chance of being uttered. This potential reference is thought to be linked to Trump's recent executive order to declassify government files concerning extraterrestrial life, a move that has captured public imagination and media attention.
Lower Odds for Familiar Slogans and Nicknames
In contrast, some of Trump's more well-known phrases and nicknames are receiving less confidence from betters. Expressions like "Drill Baby Drill," "Sleepy Joe," and "Trump Derangement Syndrome" have seen lower betting activity, with each given less than a 50 percent chance of making an appearance in the address. This suggests that traders anticipate a shift in focus towards more substantive or timely issues, rather than revisiting past rhetoric.
The full scope of these bets highlights not only the public's fascination with Trump's oratory style but also the evolving nature of prediction markets in political forecasting. As the State of the Union approaches, all eyes will be on whether these high-probability phrases materialise, potentially validating the insights of the betting community.
