Official government analysis has delivered a sobering forecast regarding child poverty in the United Kingdom, projecting that over four million children will still be living in poverty by the end of the current parliament. The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) estimates that 4.2 million children will be in relative low income in 2028/29, representing a reduction of just 500,000 from the current figure of 4.7 million.
A Modest Decline Amid Policy Shifts
This assessment, which anticipates only a 10 per cent fall in child poverty by the next general election, was conducted following the Labour government's decision to abolish the controversial two-child benefit limit. This policy change forms a central pillar of the administration's child poverty strategy, which was unveiled towards the end of the previous year.
Expert Analysis and Campaigner Concerns
Peter Matejic, chief analyst at the influential Joseph Rowntree Foundation, provided critical commentary on the projections. He stated that lifting the two-child limit in April is forecast to drive an initial reduction in child poverty of approximately half a million children between 2025/26 and 2026/27. "It is a crucial first step to reducing poverty, but should be seen as reversing a harm inflicted on millions of children since 2017," Matejic remarked.
He further cautioned that "the Government cannot simply rest on its laurels", emphasising the need for ministers to outline additional plans to tackle poverty throughout the remainder of the parliamentary term. This warning comes as the government's own projections indicate that child poverty rates are expected to broadly flatline after the initial reduction in 2026/27.
Supplementary Measures and Strategic Gaps
The Labour child poverty strategy incorporates several other initiatives beyond ending the two-child cap. These include expanding access to free school meals, enhancing childcare support provisions, and prohibiting the unlawful use of bed and breakfast accommodation for families. The government estimates these combined measures will lift over 550,000 children out of poverty.
However, campaigners and anti-poverty advocates have expressed significant concerns regarding the strategy's lack of clear, ambitious targets for sustained poverty reduction. Lord John Bird, founder of The Big Issue, previously criticised what he termed "warm words" without substantive numerical goals, arguing the strategy required more definitive objectives.
Broader Economic Context
A government spokesperson defended the administration's approach, stating: "Every child deserves the best start in life and by scrapping the two-child limit as part of our Child Poverty Strategy we will lift 550,000 children out of poverty by the end of this parliament."
The spokesperson highlighted complementary economic measures designed to address the root causes of poverty, including increasing the national living wage, reducing average household energy bills by approximately £150, and establishing a £1 billion multi-year Crisis and Resilience fund to create a genuine safety net for vulnerable households.
This comprehensive forecast underscores the persistent challenge of child poverty in the UK, suggesting that while policy changes may initiate progress, sustained and ambitious intervention will be necessary to achieve meaningful, long-term reduction in the number of children living in poverty.
