Sussan Ley, the opposition leader, is poised to fast-track the announcement of a permanent Liberal-only frontbench, a move that would cement the deepening rift within the Coalition as hopes for a reunion with the Nationals continue to fade. This development comes after another round of peace talks between Ley and Nationals leader David Littleproud on Wednesday yielded no progress, with neither side willing to compromise on their core demands.
Deadlock Over Disciplinary Measures
The key sticking point in the negotiations revolves around the fate of three Nationals senators who crossed the floor on Labor's hate speech legislation. Ley has insisted that these senators must serve a six-month suspension on the backbench as part of a broader peace deal, a condition she deems non-negotiable. In contrast, the Nationals are demanding the immediate reinstatement of these frontbenchers, a position that has remained unchanged despite multiple discussions.
Guardian Australia has confirmed that Ley is prepared to move forward without the Nationals if they refuse to address this disciplinary issue. Initially, she had given the Nationals until next Monday to reunite, but senior Liberals now anticipate she may accelerate the announcement of an all-Liberal shadow ministry. This would involve promoting six MPs to shadow cabinet and two more into the outer shadow ministry, a strategy seen as bolstering Ley's internal support amid speculation of a leadership challenge from conservative rival Angus Taylor.
Internal Dynamics and Leadership Speculation
Ley has dismissed talk of an imminent leadership spill as "ridiculous" media speculation, but sources indicate that the mass promotions could help solidify her position within the party. The opposition leader's power base, particularly among moderate Liberals, shows little urgency to reconcile with the Nationals following the second split in just eight months. One MP remarked, "The shattering of the Coalition lies uncomfortably at the feet of the Nationals and their leader whose judgment has been found wanting."
Further complicating matters, the Liberals are pushing to claim 12 committee positions currently held by the Nationals, arguing these are owed to them as the formal opposition party. Katy Gallagher, the manager of government business in the Senate, has criticised this as "an unprecedented attempt from the Liberal Party to purge their former coalition partner from all senate committees."
Future Prospects and Promotions
With attention shifting to the formation of an all-Liberal frontbench, several MPs are being considered for promotion, including shadow immigration minister Paul Scarr, shadow cabinet secretary Zoe McKenzie, and opposition chief whip Aaron Violi. Ley also faces decisions regarding senior Liberals currently on the backbench, such as former leadership contender Andrew Hastie, Jane Hume, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, and Sarah Henderson.
While some Liberal MPs do not rule out a leadership challenge against Ley next week, Senate estimates hearings present a significant obstacle. Senators would need to leave these hearings to vote in a spill, a scenario deemed embarrassing given the scrutiny of government spending involved. As a result, a challenge is considered more likely in March, when three sitting weeks are scheduled.
In summary, the Coalition's future appears increasingly uncertain as both parties dig in on their positions. Ley's potential move to establish a Liberal-only frontbench underscores the growing divide, with many Liberals expressing little desire for a near-term reunion. As one MP succinctly put it, "I think it is near certain that there will be no reformation."
