Labour's Deputy Leader Warns Mandelson Scandal Could Define Crucial By-Election
Sir Keir Starmer's deputy leader has issued a stark warning that the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election represents a critical test for the prime minister's leadership, with the Peter Mandelson scandal threatening to derail Labour's campaign in the historically safe seat.
A Referendum on Starmer's Leadership
Lucy Powell told The Independent that the February 26th vote represents "a line in the sand" in Labour's battle against Nigel Farage's Reform UK, but admitted she expects the Mandelson controversy to dominate doorstep conversations with voters.
"Ministers, senior Labour figures and backbench MPs all believe this by-election has become the crunch point for the beleaguered prime minister," Powell revealed, with one source describing it as "a referendum on Starmer, pure and simple."
The Mandelson Appointment Crisis
The prime minister has endured his most difficult week since taking office, with his judgment and integrity questioned over his decision to appoint Lord Mandelson as US ambassador despite being aware of his connections to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Shocking revelations have emerged that Mandelson allegedly passed confidential, market-sensitive government material to Epstein during his tenure as business secretary in 2009, raising further questions about Starmer's appointment decision.
To compound the prime minister's problems, it has been claimed that both former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and Labour peer Maurice Glasman warned against the Mandelson appointment, with Rayner's subsequent intervention proving crucial in forcing the release of all vetting documents.
Lukewarm Defence and Campaign Challenges
Powell offered only a qualified defence of the prime minister's actions, stating: "All I'd say is that prime ministers have to make judgment calls all day long and all the time, and sometimes they get them wrong. I think the prime minister's put his hands up about that."
Labour faces significant challenges in Gorton and Denton, where the party secured over 50% of the vote in 2024. The campaign has already been complicated by controversy over Sir Keir blocking Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing as the Labour candidate, with many believing Burnham represented the best chance of stopping Reform UK.
Powell, who voted to allow Burnham to run on Labour's National Executive Committee, acknowledged the episode but insisted the mayor remains "a great asset" in the by-election campaign.
Reform UK's Momentum and Internal Labour Concerns
Nigel Farage, who has visited the constituency multiple times to campaign with Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin, told The Independent: "I really do believe this is turning into a referendum on Keir Starmer."
One Labour MP expressed concern that the scandal plays directly into Reform UK's narrative, stating: "Farage could not have written this. It allows him to paint politicians as all 'at it', part of some kind of elite, helping each other out instead of voters."
Internal discontent continues to grow, with left-wing MP Nadia Whittome describing the prime minister's position as "untenable," while Kim Johnson, Labour MP for Liverpool Riverside, warned: "The Mandelson scandal eclipses everything."
Polling Uncertainty and Campaign Strategy
Recent polling presents a mixed picture, with some surveys suggesting Reform UK holds a narrow lead while others predict Labour will retain the seat. Electoral Calculus shows Reform at 32% to Labour's 22.6%, while Polling Report forecasts Labour holding with 35.26% against Reform's 27.65%.
Labour is deploying significant resources to the campaign, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander all scheduled to canvass in the constituency. However, Powell could not confirm whether the prime minister himself would join the campaign trail.
A Battle Against Division
Powell struck a defiant tone regarding the broader political context, stating: "I've had enough of their [Reform's] division, their othering, their blaming of the problems of society on immigrants."
Highlighting Reform candidate Matt Goodwin's endorsement by far-right activist Tommy Robison, she added: "There has to be a line in the sand here, and this by-election is that line."
When asked if this campaign represents a "dry run" for Labour's national battle against Reform UK, Powell acknowledged: "In some ways this is. It's about showing that we are absolutely up for that fight. There are things that we will need to try out here and to learn from here."
The deputy leader concluded with a warning about the stakes involved: "It's important because we just can't let Reform come into an area like this and have a free run."
