With the defection of Suella Braverman, Reform UK is steadily accumulating what some might call all the 'wrong' Tories. This development marks a significant shift in the political landscape, as former Conservative heavyweights find a new home in Nigel Farage's party.
The Growing Ranks of Reform UK
There are now more members of Liz Truss's cabinet within Reform UK than on Kemi Badenoch's Conservative opposition front bench. This striking statistic highlights the extent to which Reform is becoming a repository for disaffected Tory figures. Julian Glover noted this trend, pointing out how it reflects the changing dynamics of British politics.
Suella Braverman had previously ruled out ever joining Reform UK, as evidenced by resurfaced video footage. Yet, here she is, delivering strident platitudes about honesty, immigration, and the path to a better Britain. While she may genuinely believe in these messages, the impact of such defections is diminishing with each new addition.
A Party of Ex-Tories
If voters were dissatisfied with the Conservatives, it is far from certain that they will warm to a party composed of ex-Tories seeking another chance to govern, this time draped even more emphatically in Union Flags. Reform UK likely views this influx as advantageous, positioning itself as a viable alternative to the traditional centre-right party.
Undeniably, this trend signals that Nigel Farage's party appears as a winning prospect to career politicians whose trajectories have stalled. For them, joining Reform is a calculated gamble: if Farage ascends to power, they might too.
Is This a Disaster for the Conservatives?
Yes, if one believes that good governance involves giving Braverman another opportunity to lead the Home Office for more than a brief stint. However, it may not be a catastrophe if the goal is to see a party—any party—represent the substantial segment of the population that occupies the elusive yet genuine centre ground.
This centre is characterised by economic realism, environmental concern, a balance of compassion and restraint, patriotism without jingoistic boasts, and scepticism towards grandiose political promises. These traits are not exclusive to the Conservatives, but they once defined a significant portion of the party during its electoral successes.
Strengthening the Conservative Pitch
Each time a figure who does not embody these values departs for Reform, the argument for the Conservatives to renew their appeal to the centre grows stronger. After all, where else can they turn? If the party is not to be led by someone like Braverman, it must redefine itself—or risk fading into irrelevance.
The market for a party that mimics Reform but lacks Farage is exceedingly narrow, unless the two entities ultimately merge. Currently, the Tory leadership often echoes Reform's rhetoric, blurring distinctions on issues from climate change to immigration and defence. Can you identify a policy area where the two right-wing parties substantially differ?
A Potential Shift on the Horizon
This evening in London, an event is taking place that could hold more significance than Braverman's departure. Ruth Davidson, the formidable former leader of the Scottish Conservatives, and Andy Street, the twice-elected former Mayor of the West Midlands, are launching a movement aimed at the politically homeless.
Their objective is to serve as a leftward prod, nudging the Tories back onto their erstwhile winning path and reminding everyone that politics need not be a relentless march toward the extremes. How this initiative will unfold remains unclear. Unfortunately, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch seems apprehensive about ceding space to the political centre, while Davidson and Street emphasise they are not forming an alternative party.
A potential Tory revival may or may not be underway. As for Braverman, she might recall the old Brexit slogan: better off out. This sentiment could resonate with many as the political landscape continues to evolve, challenging traditional party loyalties and reshaping the future of British governance.
