In the year 1066, English King Harold confronted two significant threats to his sovereignty. He successfully repelled a challenger from the north, decisively defeating a Viking army at the Battle of Stamford Bridge. However, his fortunes reversed when a southern challenger, William the Conqueror, triumphed at the Battle of Hastings. This pivotal defeat allowed William to seize the throne, fundamentally altering the trajectory of British history for centuries to come.
A Modern Political Parallel
Advance 960 years, and a contemporary power struggle unfolds within the Labour Party. Sir Keir Starmer has recently seen off a challenger from the north by preventing Andy Burnham from making a dramatic return to Westminster. This move was widely interpreted as thwarting a potential precursor to a leadership challenge. Yet, Sir Keir may still need to rally his somewhat weary political troops to confront a challenger emerging from the south: Wes Streeting.
The Southern Challenger: Wes Streeting
The Health Secretary and MP for Ilford North has been notably transparent about his ultimate ambition to become Prime Minister. Political observers believe he is strategically biding his time, waiting for the optimal moment to launch a bid for the leadership. In stark contrast to Burnham's very public and headline-grabbing campaign to re-enter the Commons, Streeting has adopted a quieter, more measured approach in his criticisms, making him a potentially more complex opponent to neutralise.
Blocking Streeting presents a far more difficult logistical challenge for the Prime Minister. Unlike Burnham, who needed a parliamentary seat, Streeting is already an MP, albeit with one of the slimmest majorities in the House of Commons. Furthermore, he commands substantially more support within the Parliamentary Labour Party. Allies suggest that if a leadership contest were called, Streeting could potentially secure the backing of around 200 MPs, effectively double the support that Burnham might have mustered.
The Northern Challenge: Andy Burnham
For Prime Minister Starmer, blocking Andy Burnham was always likely to be the more straightforward victory in his ongoing effort to consolidate power. Burnham, who left Parliament in 2017 after successive defeats in Labour leadership contests to Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn, required a new constituency to facilitate any march on Number 10.
Stopping this return was logistically simple, if politically delicate. Over the weekend, the Starmer-aligned officers' committee of Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC) ruled that Burnham could not stand as a candidate in the forthcoming Gorton and Denton by-election, effectively closing off his immediate route back to Westminster.
The Shadow of Angela Rayner
Another figure looms in the background of this leadership drama: Angela Rayner. The former deputy prime minister has maintained a notably low public profile since her resignation last year following controversy over tax payments related to a holiday home purchase. Dubbed the "Red Queen," she was anticipated to regain a senior cabinet role as a reward for supporting Andy Burnham's ambitions.
Sources indicate that Ms Rayner had temporarily set aside her own leadership aspirations to back the Manchester mayor. However, a much-publicised endorsement failed to materialise over the weekend, leading to renewed speculation that her ambitions to attain power herself remain very much alive. With Burnham's path now blocked, Rayner emerges as the natural challenger whom MPs from the northern heartlands and the party's soft left could potentially rally behind, presenting another possible threat to Starmer from within.
The Crucial Test: Election Day
The pivotal moment for Sir Keir Starmer's leadership will arrive on May 7th. This date will see a raft of elections across the United Kingdom, including contests for English local councils, the Scottish Parliament, and the Welsh Senedd. It is also the likely date for the Gorton by-election.
A worst-case scenario for the Labour leader would involve a disastrous electoral performance. This could include Labour finishing third in Scotland behind the SNP and Reform UK, losing control of the Welsh Senedd for the first time ever, losing the Gorton seat to Reform or the Greens, and suffering significant losses in council seats across England.
Such a poor result could provide the immediate impetus for a full-scale leadership challenge, most likely spearheaded by Wes Streeting and potentially supported by Angela Rayner. The pressure on Starmer would become immense.
The Rules of Engagement
Under the Labour Party's current rulebook, if no vacancy for party leader exists, potential challengers may still seek nominations to force a contest. The threshold for triggering such a challenge was raised in 2021, requiring nominees to secure the support of 20 per cent of Labour MPs. With 404 Labour MPs currently in the Commons, this translates to needing the backing of 81 parliamentarians.
Sir Keir Starmer, as the sitting leader, would not be required to seek nominations to enter a leadership election if challenged; his name would automatically appear on the ballot paper. Challengers must also secure the support of 5 per cent of Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) or gain the backing of three affiliated organisations, at least two of which must be trade unions.
If these conditions are met, challengers must formally write to Labour's General Secretary, Hollie Ridley, to accept their nomination. An independent scrutineer would then approve a timetable for a leadership ballot, setting the stage for a potentially bruising internal party battle that echoes the historic struggles for power seen throughout British history.
