The Conservative Party is grappling with an internal crisis, with senior figures now openly admitting the party is in a 'fight for survival' amid growing fears of a significant wave of defections to Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
Internal 'Defection Watch' List Revealed
The alarm was triggered by the recent move of former minister Robert Jenrick. In response, party officials have reportedly drawn up an internal 'defection watch list' containing the names of 11 sitting MPs. High-profile figures believed to be on this list include former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and senior backbencher Sir John Hayes. Some within the party fear the number of MPs actively considering leaving could be over 20.
The situation has been deliberately inflamed by Reform UK's honorary president, Nigel Farage. He has publicly called for any potential defectors to make the jump to his party before the local elections on 7 May, aiming to maximise the electoral impact against the Conservatives.
Senior Tories Blindsided and Bitter
The departure of Robert Jenrick has caused deep bitterness at the highest levels. Senior Tory figure and Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch launched a fierce attack on her former colleague, accusing him of lying and alleging he wants to 'burn the Conservative Party to the ground'. This extraordinary public rebuke underscores the depth of the rift.
For their part, most of the MPs named on the speculated watch list have issued denials about their intentions to defect. However, the very existence of the list and the tone of the panic confirm a party that feels it was 'blindsided' by Jenrick's exit and is now braced for further blows.
A Party Battling for Its Future
The core of the issue is a fundamental battle for the soul and future direction of the Conservative Party. The potential defectors are largely from the party's right wing, who feel their stance on issues like immigration and net zero is not being adequately represented by the current leadership under Rishi Sunak.
With Reform UK polling significantly and siphoning off traditional Conservative voters, the defection of even a handful of MPs would be a catastrophic symbolic blow. It would signal a formal split on the British right and potentially cement Reform's position as a major electoral threat, not just in a future general election but in the imminent local elections on 7 May 2026. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the Conservative Party can hold its line or if a damaging exodus begins.
