Manchester City's Second-Half Struggles Jeopardise Premier League Ambitions
Pep Guardiola's Manchester City would be leading the Premier League if not for a recurring pattern of second-half collapses that have plagued their season. Despite strong starts, the team has consistently failed to maintain leads, dropping vital points that could have positioned them at the summit of the table.
Arsenal's Resilience Amidst Title Race Tensions
While attention has focused on Arsenal's recent wobble, with the Gunners failing to win in three league games prior to this weekend, their position remains secure. Arsenal have dropped seven points in six matches since the New Year, but rivals like City, Aston Villa, and Liverpool have fared worse, each conceding 11 points in the same period. This has allowed Arsenal to maintain a six-point lead after a comfortable victory at Leeds, highlighting the chasing pack's inability to capitalise on any slip-ups.
The most striking aspect is City's squandered opportunities. Historically known for relentless winning streaks, City's current form suggests those days may be over. In the 2017-18 season, they won the title with 100 points, dropping only 14 all season; this campaign, even if they win all remaining 14 games, they would only reach 89 points.
Analysing City's Second-Half Drop-Offs
City's issues are evident in specific matches: they led 1-0 at half-time against Chelsea but conceded a late equaliser, did the same against Brighton, conceded twice in the second half to Manchester United after a 0-0 first half, and blew a 2-0 lead against Tottenham with second-half goals. In 2026 alone, these second-half concessions have cost City seven points, which would have put them top of the league.
This trend is not new. Since November, City have faced second-half pressure in games against Newcastle, Fulham, Leeds, Nottingham Forest, and Wolves, often struggling to maintain control after the break.
Potential Causes Behind the Collapses
Fatigue is a key factor, exacerbated by an expanded football calendar. Tournaments like the Champions League, World Cup, and others have grown, placing extra demands on top teams. City's participation in the Club World Cup last summer added to their burden, a disadvantage shared by few Premier League rivals.
Tactical shifts under Pep Guardiola also play a role. While City have always employed a high press, recent influences, including the arrival of former Liverpool assistant Pep Lijnders, have led to a more aggressive style. This approach is physically and mentally demanding, potentially contributing to the loss of control in second halves.
If games ended at half-time, City would lead the title race by 12 points with only two losses. However, if they started at half-time, they would be eighth, 13 points off the top, indicating a 19-point disparity between their first and second-half performances.
Implications for the Title Race
With those seven points, City would be applying significant pressure on Arsenal, reminiscent of past seasons where they outlasted the Gunners. Instead, City now appear as likely to slip up as Arsenal, altering the dynamics of the Premier League title chase.
