UK Gas Supplies Forecast to Meet Summer Demand Despite Middle East Conflict
Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply to meet demand from households and businesses this summer, despite significant price surges resulting from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to the country's gas system operator. National Gas has released its outlook for summer 2026, indicating that gas stocks in Great Britain will be adequate not only for domestic needs but also potentially allowing for some exports to mainland Europe.
Market Volatility and Price Increases
The energy markets have experienced considerable volatility since the escalation of conflict between US-Israeli and Iranian forces in late February. UK natural gas futures had risen to approximately 120.7 pence per therm on Monday, representing a substantial increase from around 78 pence per therm before the conflict began. This price surge has been driven by multiple factors affecting global energy supplies.
Several liquified natural gas (LNG) production facilities in Qatar and other parts of the Middle East have been targeted by missile attacks, while exports from the region have also been significantly impacted by heavy disruption to the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. This critical waterway serves as a major transit route for global energy supplies, and its disruption has created additional pressure on international gas markets.
Supply Sources and Resilience
National Gas, which operates Britain's National Transmission System (NTS), has emphasized that British demand for gas will be primarily met through supplies extracted from the UK Continental Shelf and imports from Norway. These sources are expected to provide approximately 86% of total gas supply, equivalent to about 25.3 billion cubic meters (bcm).
The organization anticipates this volume will be sufficient to exceed forecast demand from Great Britain and gas exported to Ireland. Additionally, around 5% of total supply is projected to come from flexible gas storage facilities, while approximately 9% will be sourced from LNG imports. This diversified supply portfolio provides important resilience against market disruptions.
Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, commented: "While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain's gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer. The diversity of supply sources, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage, provides resilience and flexibility as supply flows and demand patterns change."
Demand Projections and System Requirements
Demand for gas is forecast to be similar to summer 2025 levels, according to the projections. National Gas expects a roughly 6% reduction in gas demand used for electricity generation, but this will be largely offset by an anticipated 2% rise in non-daily metered demand from residential and commercial consumers.
Ian Radley, chief commercial officer at National Gas, highlighted the continuing importance of gas in supporting the electricity system: "Gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system, even during the summer months. As renewable output fluctuates, gas-fired power stations are increasingly required to respond quickly, and the network must be able to support that safely and reliably."
Radley further emphasized the importance of ongoing, coordinated action between government, industry, and regulators to address future risks arising from declining domestic production and increasing reliance on imports. The forecasts were prepared before the escalation of the Middle East conflict, but National Gas has reviewed its analysis since and concluded that the market is expected to still have sufficient capacity and capability to meet projected demands.
