Ryanair's chief executive has issued a stark warning to passengers, indicating that the airline may be forced to cancel a significant portion of its flights this summer due to a jet fuel crisis triggered by the ongoing conflict in Iran. Michael O'Leary stated that disruptions could affect up to 10% of services from May through July, directly threatening UK holidaymakers' travel plans.
Global Fuel Impact from Iran Conflict
The Iran war has severely disrupted global energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime passage handling approximately one-fifth of the world's oil shipments—remaining largely closed. This closure has led to soaring fuel prices and supply chain uncertainties, putting immense pressure on airlines reliant on stable jet fuel availability.
O'Leary's Dire Predictions
In an interview with ITV News, O'Leary expressed grave concerns about the unfolding situation. "We're all facing an unknown scenario," he remarked. "And we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5%, 10% of flights through May, June and July." He further suggested that passengers should direct any blame for cancellations towards former US President Donald Trump rather than the airline itself.
Speaking to Sky News, O'Leary elaborated on the timeline of potential disruptions. "Fuel suppliers are constantly looking at the market. We don't expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June," he explained. "We think there is a reasonable risk, some low level, maybe 10% to 25% of our supplies might be at risk through May and June."
Urgent Booking Advice
O'Leary urged travellers to secure their summer flights as soon as possible to avoid escalating costs and limited availability. He criticised the military actions in Iran, stating, "This has been a poorly judged attack on Iran, there doesn't seem to be any exit plan at all." The Ryanair boss emphasised that if the conflict concludes by April and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the risk to fuel supply would be minimal.
Skybus Cancellations Highlight Crisis
The severity of the fuel crisis is already evident, with UK airline Skybus cancelling all flights between London Gatwick and Newquay from April 3. This service, operated under a Public Service Obligation funded by Cornwall Council and the Department for Transport, was scheduled to run until May 31 but has become unsustainable.
Skybus managing director Jonathan Hinkles cited the dual pressures of skyrocketing fuel costs and a sharp decline in passenger bookings. "The huge rise in the global cost of fuel following the conflict in the Gulf, coupled with a significant drop in new passenger bookings since mid-February’s announcement of the planned closure of the PSO air route, forms an insurmountable barrier," he said.
Hinkles added that continuing operations with reduced passenger numbers was neither environmentally nor economically viable, especially during a period of global economic uncertainty and energy conservation efforts.
Industry-Wide Concerns
The warnings from Ryanair and the collapse of Skybus services underscore broader anxieties within the aviation sector. Airlines across Europe are bracing for potential fuel shortages and price hikes, which could lead to further cancellations and schedule adjustments as the summer peak season approaches.
Passengers are advised to monitor updates from their airlines closely and consider flexible booking options. The situation remains fluid, with outcomes heavily dependent on geopolitical developments in the Gulf region and the reopening of key oil transport routes.
