The future of West Midlands Police Chief Constable Craig Guildford is in serious doubt following a scathing report from His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC). The investigation laid bare profound intelligence failures within the force, centring on its controversial decision to advocate for a ban on Israeli football fans attending a match in Birmingham.
A Damning Verdict on Intelligence Failures
Sir Andy Cooke, the Chief Inspector of Constabulary, concluded that West Midlands Police became convinced a ban on supporters of Maccabi Tel Aviv was necessary for a match scheduled for November 2025. The force then fell victim to "confirmation bias," seeking evidence to justify its predetermined stance and repeatedly getting that evidence wrong.
The report found the force focused heavily on concerns within Muslim communities, who were angered by Israeli actions in Gaza, while failing to properly consult local Jewish groups. Crucially, officers did not adequately appreciate that the ban would raise significant suspicions of caving in to antisemitism.
Mishandling of Dutch Police Evidence
Central to the force's flawed case was its interpretation of intelligence from Dutch police, who had dealt with disorder when Maccabi played in Amsterdam in 2024. The HMIC report identified a series of critical errors in how this information was presented.
West Midlands Police incorrectly told Birmingham's Safety Advisory Group that Dutch officers required 5,000 personnel to manage the Amsterdam trouble, when their own records showed the correct figure was 2,000. They also wrongly claimed over 200 Israeli fans were linked to the Israeli Defense Forces and that 500-600 fans had intentionally targeted Muslim communities. In reality, clashes involved individuals, not residential areas.
Perhaps most tellingly, an incident portrayed as Maccabi fans throwing Muslims into water was, in fact, an Israeli fan being thrown in—a fact the British force knew from official Dutch reports.
Political Fallout and the Path to Dismissal
Despite Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood stating she has lost confidence in Guildford, the power to dismiss him rests with Simon Foster, the Police and Crime Commissioner for the West Midlands. Foster has announced a public session for 27 January, where he will question the Chief Constable directly.
Guildford has already faced tough scrutiny, performing poorly in two sessions before the Home Affairs Committee. The committee is expected to release its own report, which may be even more critical than the HMIC's findings. In a recent letter to MPs, Guildford apologised for an error in intelligence reports that referenced a Maccabi match against West Ham that never took place—a mistake an officer attributed to an "AI hallucination."
Could Guildford Survive?
Any move to oust the Chief Constable must consider his entire tenure since 2022. Under his leadership, the force's crime clear-up rate has risen from 3% to 15%, and its performance in answering emergency calls has vastly improved.
Furthermore, there is a national shortage of capable chief constables, with some forces struggling to fill top roles. The HMIC report stated the misleading statements were due to "carelessness rather than any deliberate distortion." However, Sir Andy Cooke was clear that responsibility lies at the top, citing a lack of strategic oversight and attention to crucial detail at the most senior levels.
Simon Foster now holds the future of Craig Guildford and the reputation of West Midlands Police in his hands, with a decision expected after the January hearing.
