A dramatic escalation in drone warfare within Sudan's Kordofan region is exacting a mounting toll on civilian populations and crippling critical aid operations, according to analysts and humanitarian workers. As the brutal conflict between the Sudanese military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces approaches its third anniversary, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles has intensified, transforming populated areas into deadly battlegrounds.
Civilian Casualties Mount in Kordofan
The Sudan Doctors Network, an organisation monitoring violence throughout the war, reports that at least 77 individuals have been killed and dozens more injured in recent attacks, predominantly conducted by the Rapid Support Forces in densely inhabited zones. A significant proportion of these victims were non-combatant civilians caught in the crossfire of a war that has already claimed at least 40,000 lives and displaced 12 million people, according to World Health Organization figures. Aid agencies warn the true death toll is likely far higher, as fighting in vast, remote regions obstructs access and accurate reporting.
Siege Warfare and Shifting Frontlines
Jalale Getachew Birru, a senior East Africa analyst with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project, notes that the military has significantly increased its deployment of drones and airstrikes in Kordofan over the past year as combat has shifted westward, establishing the region as a primary theatre of operations. Although the military declared it broke the RSF siege of Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan province, and the neighbouring town of Dilling after more than two years, Birru contends these sieges are not fully lifted. "These cities are still encircled, and the fight for the control of these cities and the wider region is ongoing," he stated.
Walid Mohamed, a resident of Kadugli, confirmed that briefly breaking the siege allowed more goods and medicines to enter, reopening a corridor with Dilling and reducing food prices after a dire humanitarian crisis. However, he described how RSF drone strikes have since become an almost daily occurrence, deliberately targeting hospitals, markets, and residential homes. Omran Ahmed, from Dilling, echoed this, stating increased drone attacks are "spreading fear and terror among residents as they see more civilians become victims."
International Condemnation and Aid Obstruction
Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, raised the alarm this week, revealing that drone strikes killed over 50 civilians in just two days. "These latest killings are yet another reminder of the devastating consequences on civilians of the escalating use of drone warfare in Sudan," Türk declared, condemning assaults on civilian sites including markets, health facilities, and schools. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric indicated evidence suggests both warring factions have utilised drones against civilians in recent attacks. "These civilians have been at one time or another in government-controlled areas and areas controlled by the RSF, which would make us believe that both sides are using them," he explained. In contrast, two anonymous military officials insisted the army does not target civilian infrastructure.
A UN convoy successfully delivered aid for over 130,000 people to Dilling and Kadugli this week, marking the first major humanitarian delivery in three months. Nevertheless, aid workers express profound concern about escalating violence. Mathilde Vu, an advocacy manager with the Norwegian Refugee Council, voiced "huge concern" about the "unacceptable" escalation in Kordofan, warning it could "shatter lives and obstruct any hope to reverse the famine/starvation" in the region. Vu described the attacks as "very indiscriminate," noting that between Kordofan, Darfur, and the east, messages about drone strikes hitting civilian infrastructure and killing people are received every other day.
Strategic Objectives and Foreign Involvement
Kholood Khair, founding director of the Confluence Advisory think tank, explained that much recent fighting centres on Kordofan because the army aims to create a route into the neighbouring Darfur region. Recapturing el-Fasher city, the capital of North Darfur which fell to the RSF in October, could allow the army to restore vital supply and logistic lines between Kordofan and Darfur. Conversely, the RSF seeks to forge a route out of Kordofan back toward the country's centre and capital, Khartoum. Both sides have employed drones extensively, particularly in North Kordofan, with civilians bearing the brunt. ACLED data indicates that last year, 163 air and drone strikes across Sudan targeted civilians, killing 1,032 people. The army reportedly conducted 83 strikes causing 568 deaths, while the RSF executed 66 strikes killing 288 individuals.
Federico Donelli, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Trieste, observed that both factions have escalated drone use in Kordofan in recent weeks. He attributed this increase to several factors, including the army's acquisition of new weapons and drones manufactured and supplied by foreign actors. "This has enabled the army to rely more heavily on precision strikes, mirroring tactics that the Rapid Support Forces have been using for some time," Donelli said. He also suggested both sides may be struggling to maintain troop numbers, leading them to favour drones over deploying ground units, especially in contested areas like Kordofan.
Forecast of Continued Escalation
Khair predicts the fighting in Kordofan could shift further in the coming period, with the army potentially attempting to push into Darfur, particularly toward el-Fasher, where war crimes have been reported. "We expect to see the bombing campaigns not only continue but increase in frequency and volume," she warned, painting a grim picture for the region's beleaguered civilians and the humanitarian organisations striving to assist them.
