Voters in England will head to the polls on 7 May to cast their votes in the 2026 local elections, with more than 5,000 council seats up for grabs. Pollsters are predicting a disastrous result for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, with some experts forecasting the party could see its worst-ever result. Both Reform UK and the Green Party are expected to be the big winners, as opinion polling shows growing discontent with both Labour and the Conservatives.
Labour’s Predicted Collapse
At last year’s local elections, Labour lost two-thirds of its seats in England in one of the party’s worst results in history. The party was polling around the mid-20s at that point, but has since dropped to 19%, indicating an even more disastrous result could be on the cards this year. Of the 5,000 English council seats being contested, Labour is defending just over half (2,557) and is projected to lose between 50% and 74% of them.
Polling expert Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, forecasts Labour losing 1,900 councillors, which would mark a new low for the party. Other pollsters put Labour losses closer to 1,500, which would still be a terrible result for the government.
Reform and Greens Set to Gain
Reform UK is projected to gain over 1,300 seats from a base of just 3, more than doubling its current number of councillors to 2,342. The Green Party is also forecast to enjoy strong results, with projections seeing them gain 555 seats from a base of 141. The Liberal Democrats could gain 393 seats. Meanwhile, the Conservatives look set to suffer another bruising defeat, facing a loss of 907 councillors from a base of 1,362, a drop of two-thirds.
Council Control Shifts
On a council level, Reform is expected to translate its massive gains into taking control of several councils across the country. Sunderland is forecast to comfortably flip from Labour to Reform control, with Thurrock, Wakefield, and Barnsley projected to go a similar way. Nigel Farage’s party is also projected to take several councils from Conservative control, including Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk.
The Greens are expected to do well in London and are in line to form a minority of councillors in six boroughs across the capital, possibly even taking outright control of Hackney. The party is also polling well in Hastings, which currently has no overall control, and is understood to be targeting the seat to take over.
Both rapidly expanding parties could also grow to be the minority party in several contested councils after the election, or push Labour to become a minority in areas it currently controls outright.
