Experts have concluded that the protest wave in Iran is largely regime-managed, according to a new report. The research highlights the resilience of the Iranian regime amidst ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.
Organised Demonstrations and Crackdowns
Since the start of the war, Iran's regime has organised more than 850 public demonstrations in support of the government. Concurrently, a crackdown on unrest has led to at least 1,400 detentions. These figures underscore the regime's ability to maintain control despite intensive airstrikes.
Conflict Dynamics and Casualties
The war began with a surprise Israeli strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, and many senior officials. Israel has continued to assassinate senior commanders, such as Alireza Tangsiri, the naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards, who died in an attack on Bandar Abbas.
Clionadh Raleigh, president of Acled, an independent conflict monitor, stated, "The US-Israeli decapitation strategy could not have been more successful, but the regime has not fragmented. The messaging within Iran is constant and consistent, portraying them as winning."
Acled's database shows that US and Israeli strikes have remained steady at between 47 and 102 attacks daily, causing significant civilian casualties. In contrast, Tehran's retaliation has been largely ineffective, resulting in only 70 fatalities compared to 1,157 killed inside Iran, including 341 civilians.
Pro-Regime Protests and Suppression
The third week of the conflict saw the most sustained waves of mass public demonstrations in support of the regime. Acled counted 195 pro-regime demonstrations from 28 February to 6 March, focused on mourning Khamenei and condemning Israel and the US. This was followed by 158 in the next week and nearly 300 from 13-19 March, with celebrations of Mojtaba Khamenei's succession prominent.
Most protests occurred in Tehran, though some were recorded in the north-east and south-west. Acled noted, "The protest wave in Iran is regime-managed – 99.2% of 845 protests are pro-regime. The transition from mourning to succession endorsement appears orchestrated."
Arrest Campaign and Dissent
The researchers observed that 99.2% of protests were pro-regime, suggesting either genuine nationalist consolidation, heavy self-censorship, or effective pre-emptive suppression. The arrest campaign has detained over 1,465 individuals in 27 days, with charges escalating from 'filming damage' to 'espionage' and 'mercenary.'
Details of repression include the deaths of 10 people when Revolutionary Guards fired on anti-regime demonstrators in Tehran on 25 March, and three killed in Chabahar during prison protests over food ration cuts. Security forces have intervened against gatherings chanting anti-government slogans.
Expert Analysis on Regime Resilience
Alia Brahimi, a regional expert with the Atlantic Council, stated that none of the pro-regime protests would have been spontaneous. She explained, "Leadership structures in Iran have withstood the joint US-Israeli offensive. Decades of ideological conditioning have prepared Iranians to absorb the death of senior commanders, with organisational resilience built through multiple replacements and decentralised decision-making."
Civilian Casualty Estimates
Estimates of civilian casualties vary. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies reported over 1,900 killed and at least 20,000 injured in Iran since the start of attacks. The US-based Human Rights Activists news agency cited 3,300 killed, including 1,464 civilians and at least 217 children.
In January, large protests were bloodily suppressed, with 7,000 killed by security forces, marking the most serious internal threat to the regime in over 45 years. Since the war began, security forces have set up checkpoints, cut off the internet, and arrested 500 'spies.'
Ahmad-Reza Radan, the national police commander, warned, "If anyone comes forward in line with the wishes of the enemy, we will see them as an enemy and do to them what we do to an enemy."
