Ukraine Frontline Mapped: Kyiv's Counteroffensive Secures Territory Before US Peace Talks Stall
Diplomats from Russia and Ukraine have engaged in US-brokered peace talks in Geneva, with the most recent session ending abruptly after merely two hours. This development comes as Ukraine heads into its third round of direct negotiations with Russia and American mediators this week, following a series of symbolic victories on the frontlines.
Peace Talks Conclude Without Progress
Two days of discussions concluded suddenly on Wednesday, after lengthy deliberations over territory the previous day. Kyiv has acknowledged some progress in the talks but emphasized that both sides remain deeply opposed on critical issues. To date, there has been minimal advancement in the negotiations, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently expressing frustration that his nation is "too often" pressured to make concessions while Moscow maintains its maximalist demands.
Territorial Gains Bolster Ukrainian Position
With land remaining central to diplomatic efforts, Ukrainian negotiators arrived in Geneva this week emboldened by recent territorial gains on the battlefield. According to an analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces advanced approximately 201 square kilometers between Wednesday and Sunday, effectively negating Russia's gains for the entire month of December.
Meanwhile, Russia's primary focus continues to be eastern Ukraine, where a formidable "fortress belt" comprising trenches, bunkers, minefields, and barbed wire has significantly slowed advances.
Evolution of the Frontlines
Ahead of the war's fourth anniversary on February 24, Russian advances are progressing at a "footpace" and "do not portend the collapse of the Ukrainian lines," as per the latest assessment from the ISW. Russian forces claimed 141 square kilometers in the week beginning January 25, but gains dwindled to just 74 square kilometers in the week starting February 8.
While Ukrainian liberation efforts may not match the momentum of the summer 2023 counteroffensive, steady progress through November and December has helped reduce overall Russian gains in recent weeks.
Military Analyst Insights
Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finland-based open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group, told The Independent that the latest figures might not indicate a strategic shift but could provide some political relief during talks. "The Ukrainians have managed to liberate various villages in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts," he stated. "This section of the front is of less importance when considering operational or strategic significance."
Kastehelmi added, "It's clear that they have now advanced various kilometers in various places and taken the initiative locally. However, there are numerous ways to interpret this situation."
Detailed Territorial Changes
According to Ukrainian milblogger Konstantin Mashovets, by Sunday, Ukraine had pushed Russian forces from the villages of Ternuvate and Kosivtseve, crossed the Haichur River, liberated Dobropillya, and breached Russian lines to the east. Russian troops managed advances toward Novopokrovka-Mala Tokmachka, Kamyanske-Lukyanivske, Plavnia-Primorske, and Stepove-Pavlovka, Mashovets reported. However, in recent days, "the pace of advance of the advanced units and divisions of the Russian troops in these directions first dropped significantly, and then almost completely 'reduced to zero.'"
Ukrainian troops in certain areas of Donetsk executed successful counterattacks, managing "not only to sharply slow down the enemy's general offensive ... but also to force the Russian command to withdraw its advanced units back."
Tactical and Political Implications
Kastehelmi assessed, "It seems that Ukraine genuinely wants to hold the defensive line at the Haichur River. The Russians had crossed it in a few places and have now been pushed back. This is merely a tactical change and doesn't reveal much about longer-term trends."
He continued, "Looking at recent years, this is a relatively successful counterattack in terms of gained square kilometers. However, focusing on one variable doesn't provide insight into larger trends where Russia might begin to lose ground more rapidly. It won't be a large operational success with breakthroughs pushing Russians dozens of kilometers back ... but it's likely Ukrainians may continue these offensive actions for some time and potentially liberate a few more villages."
Technological Factors in Counterattacks
Successful Ukrainian counterattacks were likely aided by a recent block on Russian forces' access to Starlink, according to the ISW. Russian forces have depended on Elon Musk's technology as a crucial communications line. Ukraine reported last week that terminals used by Russian soldiers were disconnected following discussions between Kyiv's defence minister and Musk, whose company SpaceX operates the satellite network.
Focus of Geneva Talks
Land is expected to be at the forefront of discussions this week as delegations from Russia and Ukraine convene in Switzerland to negotiate elusive peace terms. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov informed reporters on Monday that the Russian team, led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, would address "main issues," which he defined as "both the territories and everything else related to the demands we have put forward."
Talks relocated to Geneva after Abu Dhabi hosted two rounds that both sides described as constructive but failed to achieve any major breakthrough. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian-held land in the Donbas, while Ukraine insists it cannot relinquish territory.
Political Edge from Battlefield Success
Ukraine's land gains on the battlefield may not signify a strategic shift, but they could provide Kyiv with a political advantage entering talks. Kastehelmi noted, "It's possible the counterattacks have a political dimension. They can now attend talks and present themselves as an undefeated army. They can showcase themselves as a fighting force capable of conducting relatively swift counterattacks compared to the war's general pace. They can highlight liberating many villages in a short time span and portray themselves as a stronger opponent than the Russian narrative suggests."
