Slump in Voters’ Support for Israel Shakes US Consensus Over Military Aid
Bipartisan backing for the special relationship between the United States and Israel is fraying as Middle East conflicts turn public opinion, threatening a decades-long status quo of support for military assistance. In public opinion polling, among likely presidential candidates, and even within pro-Israel lobbying circles, this alliance is now under fire. Human rights concerns from the left and an "America First" foreign policy groundswell on the right could significantly impact upcoming elections, including the 2028 presidential race.
Shift in Democratic Support and Senate Votes
The shift has been particularly marked on the left. When Senator Bernie Sanders first tabled a joint resolution of disapproval to oppose arms sales to Israel last year, it received votes from just 15 Democratic members of the Senate. A similar vote last July won 27 supporters. Recently, a vote against supplying Caterpillar D9 bulldozers to Israel—which Sanders argued could be used to destroy homes in the West Bank, Gaza, and Lebanon—was defeated but with a record 40 Senate Democrats supporting it. Another measure restricting the sale of 1,000-pound bombs to Israel was rejected by a 36-63 vote.
Observers note that several Democratic senators who flipped to support these resolutions are considering presidential runs in 2028. Jon Hoffman, a foreign-policy analyst at the Cato Institute, stated, "I think it’s going to be very difficult for a 2028 Democratic primary candidate to win if they do not openly disavow US aid to Israel—possibly even the US-Israel special relationship. I think we will have reached that point by 2028."
Drivers of Changing Public Opinion
The change among moderate Democrats has been driven by shifting public opinion due to the Israeli military’s conduct during the war in Gaza and anger over Donald Trump’s support for the Iran war. Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, who voted for the joint resolution, said, "We can all look at what is happening in the region right now and understand that this is not business as usual—and it is not making us safer. The United States and Israel are fighting a war against Iran without a clear strategy or goal."
Senator Ruben Gallego, a vocal opponent of offensive weapons sales to Israel, commented that the vote "means Netanyahu really screwed up the politics of the Middle East, and he is destroying the bipartisan nature in terms of support for Israel."
Polling Data and Age Gaps
Recent opinion polling underscores this trend. The Pew Research Center released a poll showing a record 60% of US adults now have an unfavourable view of Israel, a 7% jump in just the last year. The poll, conducted nearly a month into the joint US-Israeli intervention into Iran, also revealed a marked age gap: in both political parties, a majority of adults under 50 view Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu negatively.
The number of Americans with a strongly or somewhat unfavourable view of Israel has risen 20 percentage points since 2022, following Hamas's raid from Gaza that killed over 1,200 people. Israel’s war in Gaza, which began on 8 October and has killed an estimated 72,000 Palestinians, marks an inflection point for the US-Israel relationship.
Impact on Future Elections and Policy
While shifting public opinion may not immediately affect White House policy, the 2028 presidential cycle will be strongly impacted. Democratic candidates will face pressure to disavow US support for Israel in the Iran war, and the Republican field will be shaped by Trump’s continuing stature in conservative politics. Josh Paul, a former director at the US Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, noted, "On the Democratic side, it’s often hinged to questions of human rights and the international rules-based order. On the Republican side, it’s framed around taxpayer funding or whether this is America first or Israel first."
Changes in Pro-Israel Lobbying
In a significant shift, the liberal thinktank J Street, which positions itself as "pro-Israel, pro-peace," announced it would oppose direct US funding for arms sales to Israel, including defensive weapons like Iron Dome missiles. Jeremy Ben-Ami, founder of J Street, stated, "It’s really important for Israel to stop this financial subsidy and take this out of the equation. It is causing a whole additional level of anger that the things this government of Israel is doing are being financed by American taxpayer dollars." He cited aggravating factors such as the war in Gaza, rising extremist Jewish terror in the West Bank, and the US-Israel war with Iran.
This evolving landscape suggests that the long-standing US consensus on military aid to Israel is undergoing a profound transformation, with potential ripple effects across domestic politics and international relations.
