A new study reveals that Americans care more about future generations than they think, with the average person extending moral concern about 28 generations—roughly 700 years—into the future. However, they systematically underestimate how much their fellow citizens care, a misperception that could undermine support for long-term policies.
The Study's Findings
Researchers conducted two online surveys of 1,000 U.S. adults, designed to match the national demographics. In one survey, participants reported their own views; in the other, a separate group estimated the average American's views. The study examined three dimensions: how many future generations society should consider in collective decisions, how many elected officials should consider, and how far into the future people deserve moral concern.
For moral concern, participants indicated how many of the next 50 generations (each spanning 25 years) belong inside their 'moral circle.' On average, Americans included 28 generations—about 700 years—but guessed that others' concern faded at 21 generations, or 175 years sooner. Similarly, Americans thought society should consider 16–17 generations ahead (400–425 years) and elected officials 17 generations, but assumed others would endorse only 13 generations (325 years).
Why It Matters
Public support for long-term policies depends partly on perceived public opinion. Research on climate policy shows that Americans often underestimate existing support for mitigation measures. When people believe their view is unusual, they become less likely to speak up or pressure leaders. This dynamic may extend to other future-oriented issues like pandemic preparedness, nuclear risk, and emerging technologies.
For instance, a person might support stronger emissions cuts or disease prevention but stay quiet if they assume most others do not care about long-term consequences. The study suggests that correcting these misperceptions could boost collective action.
What's Next
Unlike climate change, which is polarized along party lines, concern for future generations is less politicized. Most Americans, regardless of political affiliation, express care for people living centuries from now. Yet this concern is rarely voiced in everyday conversation, media, or political debate. Future research should explore why this visibility gap exists and how to bridge it.
As the authors note, 'It’s possible that a person might support stronger emissions cuts, better disease-prevention systems or safeguards on high-risk technologies, but stay quiet if they assume most other Americans do not care about those kinds of long-term consequences.'
About the authors: Kyle Fiore Law is a Postdoctoral Research Scholar in Sustainability at Arizona State University. Stylianos Syropoulos is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at Arizona State University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
