From Jay Kelly to Wicked 2: The Oscar-Primed Films That Fizzled This Season
It was a remarkable year for blockbuster successes such as Sinners and One Battle After Another, yet numerous films featuring megastars like George Clooney, Julia Roberts, and Dwayne Johnson struggled to gain traction in the awards race. While last year's Oscars celebrated smaller films like The Brutalist and Anora, this season has shifted towards high-budget productions leading the nominations. Sinners made history by earning 16 Oscar nominations, highlighting the dominance of major studio releases. However, this trend makes it all the more puzzling why some of Hollywood's biggest names found themselves sidelined from the competition.
The Smashing Machine
This autumn saw the Safdie brothers pursuing separate projects, both opting for sports biopics released by A24, though with unconventional approaches. Benny Safdie's The Smashing Machine appeared to be a strong awards contender, featuring Dwayne Johnson in a transformative role that typically appeals to the Academy, alongside Oscar nominee Emily Blunt. The film premiered at the Venice Film Festival to a 15-minute standing ovation, yet it struggled to connect with audiences and critics, grossing only $21 million globally. Voters ultimately favoured Josh Safdie's more engaging Marty Supreme, leaving Johnson's serious turn overlooked.
After the Hunt
Following the underwhelming Oscar performances of Challengers and Queer, director Luca Guadagnino seemed poised for success with After the Hunt, a campus drama addressing #MeToo fallout. Starring Oscar winner Julia Roberts, supported by Andrew Garfield and Ayo Edebiri, the film premiered at Venice but failed to generate the expected debate. Instead, it was met with confusion and disinterest, grossing less than $10 million worldwide against an $80 million budget. Roberts received a Golden Globe nod, but her Oscar chances evaporated, leaving Guadagnino out of the Academy's favour.
A House of Dynamite
Kathryn Bigelow's nuclear thriller A House of Dynamite initially received praise at Venice, positioning it as Netflix's top awards hope given her Oscar history with The Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty. However, a notorious press screening at the New York Film Festival elicited laughs and groans, diminishing its prospects. Upon its Netflix release, the film baffled viewers and was deprioritised in the streamer's campaign, resulting in zero nominations.
Deliver Me from Nowhere
This Bruce Springsteen biopic, retitled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, seemed a sure bet for nominations, directed by Scott Cooper, who previously guided Jeff Bridges to an Oscar win for Crazy Heart. Starring Jeremy Allen White and launched at Telluride, it followed the success of A Complete Unknown. Despite polite reviews, the film faltered quickly, grossing only $22 million in the US and failing to transcend its formulaic approach. In a competitive best actor field, this was a surprising miss.
Christy
Sydney Sweeney's career strategy included Christy, a true-story boxing drama aimed at awards recognition. Premiering at Toronto, it targeted a best actress category initially lacking strong contenders. However, the film became a box office disaster with middling reviews, and Sweeney failed to secure even a Golden Globe nomination. As the race intensified, she became a distant outsider.
Jay Kelly
Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly, starring George Clooney and featuring a film industry plot, premiered at Venice with hopes of securing Baumbach his first Oscar and Adam Sandler his first nomination. Yet, mixed reviews, including a one-star rating from the Guardian's Peter Bradshaw, undermined the Clooney comeback narrative. The film's old-fashioned sentimentality failed to resonate with the more international Academy.
Wicked: For Good
After Wicked earned multiple Oscar nominations last year, its sequel Wicked: For Good was expected to follow suit, with predictions for Ariana Grande's supporting actress nod. However, the film was entirely shut out, experiencing a sharp decline in box office and critical reception, with a 22% drop on Rotten Tomatoes. This outcome suggested voters were unwilling to reward a lesser sequel automatically.
The Ballad of a Small Player
Following Edward Berger's successes with All Quiet on the Western Front and Conclave, his adaptation The Ballad of a Small Player starred Colin Farrell and Tilda Swinton and premiered at Telluride. Despite these elements, the film was deemed too flashy and messy, failing to connect with audiences and quickly becoming a low priority for Netflix and voters.
Is This Thing On?
Bradley Cooper's third directorial effort, Is This Thing On?, a divorce comedy-drama, premiered at the New York Film Festival but struggled to gain attention in a crowded awards season. Lost among fall festival releases and December qualifiers, it marked another disappointment for Searchlight Pictures, which also failed with The Testament of Ann Lee.
Rental Family
Brendan Fraser's follow-up to his Oscar win for The Whale, Rental Family, premiered at Toronto with better reviews and a feelgood story. However, in a highly competitive best actor category, Fraser, like other established stars, was not seen as an indispensable contender, highlighting the challenges of maintaining awards momentum.
