A new scientific study has delivered a chilling forecast for the glaciers of the European Alps, warning they are likely to reach their peak rate of disappearance in just eight years. The research indicates that more than 100 individual glaciers across the Alps will have melted away permanently by the year 2033.
A Global Glacial Crisis
This alarming trend is not confined to Europe. The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, projects that glaciers in the western United States and Canada will follow a similar fate, reaching their peak year of loss less than a decade later. By that point, the model forecasts a staggering loss of more than 800 glaciers disappearing each year in that region.
Globally, the pace of loss is set to accelerate dramatically. Currently, about 750 of the world's roughly 200,000 glaciers vanish annually. However, if government climate plans, which are projected to lead to around 2.7°C of global heating above pre-industrial levels, remain unchanged, annual losses will skyrocket. They would peak at approximately 3,000 glaciers per year by 2040 and remain at that devastating rate for two decades.
By the century's end, 80% of today's glaciers could be gone under this high-emissions scenario. In contrast, rapid and deep cuts to carbon emissions to limit warming to 1.5°C would see annual losses capped at about 2,000 by 2040, after which the rate would begin to decline.
More Than Just Ice: Cultural and Ecological Loss
While previous research has often focused on the volume of ice lost and its contribution to sea-level rise, this study highlights the loss of individual glaciers. These frozen giants are crucial water sources for communities, major tourist attractions, and hold deep spiritual significance for many cultures.
Dr Matthias Huss, a senior scientist at ETH Zurich and a study co-author, knows this loss intimately. As director of the Swiss glacier monitoring network, he recently declared four glaciers extinct. He also spoke at a poignant funeral ceremony for the Pizol glacier in 2019, attended by over 250 people. "People climb up to these vanishing glaciers to say goodbye for themselves, but also to send out a strong signal to the public to tell them it matters to us," Huss said.
Such ceremonies have been held from Iceland to Nepal. In New Zealand, the melting Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere glacier, regarded as an ancestor in Māori culture, has prompted profound grief. Māori leader Nā Lisa Tumahai described it as a "retreating giant... subdued, humiliated by the actions of humans."
Regional Impacts and the Urgent Need for Adaptation
The research, which analysed over 200,000 glaciers using satellite data and multiple models, found regions with smaller glaciers are most vulnerable.
- Central Europe: 3,200 glaciers could shrink by 87% even with 1.5°C of warming, and by 97% under a 2.7°C scenario.
- Western US & Canada (including Alaska): About 70% of today's 45,000 glaciers are projected to vanish with 1.5°C of heating, rising to over 90% at 2.7°C.
- Larger glaciers in places like Greenland will take longer to respond, reaching peak extinction rates around 2063, but the melting will continue long beyond 2100.
The researchers stress that these peak loss dates represent critical turning points with profound implications for ecosystems and the 2 billion people downstream who rely on mountain water for supplies and food security. They underscore an urgent need for adaptation, which could include new farming practices, alternative tourism models, and even trialling artificial glaciers.
Dr Arun Bhakta Shrestha, a senior adviser at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, said the study "underscores how today’s climate decisions will profoundly influence the future of these vital natural features." The rapid vanishing of glaciers is not just an environmental metric; it is, as the authors note, "a human story of vanishing landscapes, fading traditions and disrupted daily routines."
