A stark new scientific study has issued a dire warning for the European Alps, predicting the mountain range will reach 'peak glacier extinction' within the next eight years, leading to the irreversible loss of thousands of its iconic ice formations.
Modelling a Melting Future
Researchers from ETH Zurich employed state-of-the-art global glacier models to project the fate of the Alps' frozen landscape under various climate scenarios. Their findings, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, present a sobering outlook.
If global temperatures rise by 1.5°C—a threshold scientists warn is increasingly probable—only 430 of the Alps' current 3,000 glaciers will remain by the century's end. Under a 2.7°C warming scenario, that number plummets to 110. In a catastrophic 4°C warming world, a mere 20 glaciers would survive.
Lead author Dr Lander Van Tricht stated, 'In these regions, more than half of all glaciers are expected to vanish within the next 10 to 20 years.' The study identifies the Alps as particularly vulnerable due to its many small, low-elevation glaciers.
Tourism and the Ticking Clock
The implications extend far beyond geology, striking at the heart of regional economies. 'When a glacier disappears completely, it can severely impact tourism in a valley,' Dr Van Tricht explained. Many ski resorts rely on glaciers for reliable snow cover, especially for early, late, and summer seasons.
The research indicates that 'peak glacier extinction'—the point when annual ice loss reaches its maximum—could occur as early as 2033. Iconic glaciers are not spared. Under extreme warming, the mighty Aletsch Glacier, the largest in the Alps, would fragment. Medium-sized glaciers like the Rhône would shrink to tiny remnants or vanish entirely, a process already visibly underway.
'We already see glacier ski areas adapting by relocating or closing lifts or infrastructure,' Van Tricht noted, highlighting the immediate economic fallout.
A Global Glacial Retreat
The crisis is not confined to Europe. The study found no region worldwide where glacier numbers are stable or increasing. Lower-lying areas in Central Europe, western Canada, the US, Central Asia, and the tropical Andes could lose more than half their glaciers before 2040.
In the Rocky Mountains, around 75% of glaciers would be lost with 1.5°C of warming. Similar devastation is projected for the Andes and Central Asia. Even in the Karakoram, where some glaciers briefly expanded, decline is now forecast.
Co-author Professor Daniel Farinotti emphasised, 'The results underline how urgently ambitious climate action is needed.' The study concludes that while severe shrinkage is inevitable this century, limiting warming to 1.5°C could save roughly half the glaciers otherwise doomed under a 4°C trajectory, offering a crucial lifeline for these frozen giants and the communities that depend on them.
