A new scientific tool could help identify overweight individuals who are at high risk of developing serious obesity-related complications, potentially allowing them to access weight-loss medications before they become obese. Developed by researchers from Queen Mary University of London and the Berlin Institute of Health, the tool aims to complement traditional body mass index (BMI) scores by providing a more personalised risk assessment.
The tool, named Obscore, was created using data from 200,000 middle-aged adults in the UK Biobank study. Researchers analysed over 2,000 health factors, including age, sex, and blood biomarkers, focusing on individuals with a BMI of 27 and above—classified as overweight. The study, published in Nature Medicine, identified 20 commonly collected health measures that can predict 18 different obesity-related complications, such as cancer and type 2 diabetes.
Dr Kamil Demircan from Queen Mary University of London noted that a significant proportion of high-risk individuals were overweight rather than obese, meaning they might be overlooked if only BMI is considered. The tool could help the NHS prioritise resources for those who would benefit most from interventions like weight-loss jabs.
Professor Nick Wareham from the University of Cambridge highlighted the need for accurate allocation of finite NHS resources, especially for therapies like semaglutide and tirzepatide, which currently have prescription thresholds based on BMI or weight-related health problems. He described the tool as a step towards evolving decision-making for weight reduction therapies.
Lead author Professor Claudia Langenberg emphasised that with obesity affecting a growing global population, data-driven frameworks like Obscore can help healthcare systems identify individuals at higher risk and support more risk-based approaches to managing obesity.
