The SNP could secure the 'vast bulk' of Scotland's constituencies if current polling proves accurate next week, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. The party, led by John Swinney, is projected to remain the largest in the Scottish Parliament, although it remains unclear whether it will achieve an outright majority.
Constituency Seats and Green Party Factor
Of the 129 seats at Holyrood, 73 are constituency seats elected via the first-past-the-post system. Sir John highlighted that many polls have not accounted for the Scottish Greens contesting only six of these constituencies. Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland's Breakfast programme, he noted that the SNP, Conservatives, and Labour have all experienced declines in vote share compared to the previous election.
Constitutional Issue Still Key
The constitutional future of Scotland remains 'very important' to voters, Sir John added. He stated that the overall polling picture has 'hasn't moved much' during the campaign, but warned that polls vary on the extent of the SNP's lead. 'The three governing parties of Scotland—SNP, Labour, and the Conservatives—are all doing badly this election,' he said.
'But the SNP has something like a 17-point lead over everybody else. If the SNP are indeed that far ahead, and given their vote is consistent from Wick to Stranraer, they are bound to win the vast bulk of the constituencies.' This could translate to around 60 seats for Mr Swinney's party, though Sir John stressed that polls do not agree on the exact lead.
Final Week of Campaigning
With just one week remaining, parties are intensifying efforts to attract voters. All six main parties have released their manifestos, and leaders have clashed in a series of televised debates. Sir John concluded: 'To that extent at least, still plenty to fight over in the last week.'
