Death rates for nearly every form of cancer are projected to fall in the United Kingdom this year, with one stark and worrying exception. New research forecasts that bowel cancer will be the only major cancer to see an increase in mortality in 2026, reversing a decades-long trend of improvement.
A Troubling Exception in a Positive Trend
Scientists from the University of Milan and the University of Bologna conducted detailed modelling using health and population data across the EU and UK. Their findings, published in the Annals of Oncology, predict that while age-standardised death rates for cancers like lung, prostate, and stomach are set to decline, rates for bowel cancer – also known as colorectal cancer – are expected to climb.
This is particularly concerning as overall cancer death rates in the UK are projected to fall by 11.25% for men and 7.26% for women compared to the 2020-2022 period. The study estimates that since 1988, improved treatments and prevention have helped avoid approximately 1.5 million cancer deaths in the UK alone.
Younger Adults and Women Most at Risk
The rise is not evenly distributed. The analysis indicates the increase is being driven largely by a worrying uptick in mortality among younger adults. Age-standardised death rates for bowel cancer in women are predicted to rise by 3.65%. For men, rates are expected to fall by 3.6%.
Study author Professor Carlo La Vecchia stated, "Colorectal cancer mortality is now increasing in the UK and most of northern Europe among people aged younger than 50 years, likely due to overweight, obesity and diabetes." This aligns with a 2025 Lancet study, reported by the Mirror, which found early-onset bowel cancer diagnoses in people aged 25-49 are rising by an average of 3.6% every year in England.
The disease, which now claims almost 17,000 lives annually in Britain, is notoriously difficult to diagnose early because its symptoms – such as persistent stomach cramps, changes in bowel habits, and bleeding – are common and often dismissed.
The Legacy of Awareness and Ongoing Challenges
The late campaigner Dame Deborah James, known as 'Bowel Babe', powerfully highlighted this issue. Diagnosed at age 35, she dedicated her final years to raising awareness before her death in 2022 at age 40. Her work brought national attention to the signs of a disease that is now the third most common cancer in the UK.
Professor Eva Negri, who co-led the research, emphasised the broader success story, noting the millions of deaths avoided due to medical advances. However, Professor La Vecchia concluded that "tobacco control remains the cornerstone of lung cancer prevention", a factor still influencing death rates among older women from lung cancer.
The study serves as a urgent reminder for public health policy, underscoring the need for targeted screening and addressing lifestyle factors like obesity to reverse this singular, alarming trend in the nation's fight against cancer.
