The United States is witnessing a welcome decline in influenza activity, with official data showing a downturn for the second consecutive week. However, health authorities are urging the public not to become complacent, warning that the flu season is far from finished and a second wave remains a distinct possibility.
Signs of a Moderate Respiratory Season
Figures released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday, 16 January 2026, reveal a substantial drop in flu-related hospital admissions. The data, which covers activity up to last week, also shows a smaller but notable reduction in medical appointments for flu-like symptoms.
In a further positive sign, the number of states reporting high levels of flu activity has fallen from 44 to 36. The current winter period has also avoided major concurrent surges in other common respiratory illnesses, namely COVID-19 and RSV. As a result, CDC officials are characterising the overall respiratory virus season as "moderate."
Concerns Over Dominant H3N2 Strain
Despite the recent drop, medical experts maintain a cautious outlook. This season has been dominated by an influenza A H3N2 virus, a type historically associated with higher rates of hospitalisation and death, particularly among older adults.
An added concern is that approximately 90% of the H3N2 samples analysed this season belong to a new strain that differs from the version included in this year's flu vaccine. This mismatch can reduce the vaccine's effectiveness against this particular variant.
CDC estimates for the season to date are sobering:
- At least 18 million flu illnesses
- Around 230,000 hospitalisations
- Approximately 9,300 deaths, including at least 32 children
Of the children who died and whose vaccination status is known, a stark 90% were not fully vaccinated against influenza.
Warning Against Early Optimism
Infectious diseases specialist Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University in Tennessee highlighted the risk of a prolonged season. "We've had other seasons where we've had a peak, it's gone down, but we've nonetheless had a prolonged season," he stated.
He emphasised that second surges in flu activity frequently occur after the winter holidays. "Most of us are crossing our fingers," Dr. Schaffner added. "But I don't think we can rely on the concept that flu is abating very early this year."
The message from health officials is clear: while the recent data is encouraging, vigilance and continued preventive measures, including vaccination for those still eligible, remain crucial as the winter progresses.
