Reform UK is on course to make major gains across the West Midlands as Labour suffers a horror show in next week's local elections. Nigel Farage's party could win the largest share of the votes available in all 13 authorities going to the polls in the region, according to a major analysis by YouGov.
Reform UK's Lead
Its MRP poll of 2,000 residents in the region found Reform had double-digit leads in seven areas: Cannock Chase, Dudley, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton, Redditch, Tamworth, and Walsall. It also has a six-point lead in an eighth, Rugby.
Contention in Remaining Areas
But it is also in contention to be the most popular party in the remaining six as areas traditionally split between Labour and the Tories abandon both main parties. It is neck and neck with Labour in Sandwell and Wolverhampton and vying with the Tories in Solihull.
The poll also shows Reform, Labour, and the Greens all in close contention in Coventry and Birmingham. The latter has been controlled by Labour for 14 years, but voters could get rid of them following a long-running and bitter bin strike. Reform and Labour are on 21 per cent, two points ahead of the Greens on 19 per cent, meaning control could change hands.
Yesterday, the Labour Birmingham City Council leader said an end to the year-long bin dispute was 'within sight', with the administration understood to have bowed to pay demands from the Unite union barely a week before voters go to the polls.
Analysis and Implications
The MRP does not predict how many seats each party will win, due to the nature of the election. In some areas all the seats are up for grabs while in others only a proportion, meaning that overall control of councils could stay the same or change.
A YouGov spokesman said: 'The central story of this set of projections is one of substantial gains for Reform UK, who in many cases are starting from next to 0 per cent of the vote at the previous elections. In our median figures, the party are on course to win a 30 per cent share across the 13 councils, including winning as high as 45 per cent in Cannock Chase, as well as 43 per cent in the districts centred on Nuneaton and Tamworth.'
'That Labour was winning these councils prior to the last general election was a key indicator that they were on course to win a landslide majority. While Reform UK now winning them does not necessarily mean the same for Nigel Farage's party, as their corresponding Westminster constituencies are higher up Reform UK's target list, such gains would show just how far British politics has shifted in the last two years.'
'Labour themselves are set to suffer seismic losses across the board, with their vote projected to fall by more than 20 percentage points in ten of the 13 councils. This includes Labour's vote share falling by 30 points since 2022 in Birmingham, an identical amount since 2024 in Tamworth, and by as much as 32 points since 2024 in the Sandwell local authority, which is centred on the town of West Bromwich.'
'The Conservatives likewise are on track for big drops in support everywhere, from their long-standing stronghold of Solihull, where they are projected to drop by 24 points, through to their more recent 'red wall' gain of Newcastle-under-Lyme, where they are forecast to fall by up to 31 points.'
