Former US President Donald Trump proclaimed his 20-point peace plan as the dawn of a new era for the Middle East. Yet the reality on the ground in Gaza tells a starkly different story, with the fragile ceasefire he championed now teetering on the brink of collapse.
A Ceasefire in Name Only
Since the truce came into effect on 10 October 2025, more than 400 people in Gaza have been killed in Israeli strikes, according to the Palestinian health ministry. Israel, for its part, accuses Hamas of multiple violations, including orchestrating IED attacks against its soldiers.
The humanitarian crisis remains severe. The United Nations recently confirmed the death of a two-week-old Palestinian baby from Khan Younis from hypothermia, the first such reported case this winter. The health ministry states over a dozen people have now perished due to the extreme cold. More than 90 per cent of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents are still displaced, most living in tents exposed to flooding and freezing temperatures.
While the global hunger monitor notes Gaza is no longer technically in famine due to increased aid, humanitarian organisations insist the supplies are far from sufficient.
Stalled Talks and Unclear Structures
The initial phase of Trump's deal is faltering before negotiations on the critical second stage have even properly begun. Last week, Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, hosted senior officials from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey in Miami. These talks aimed to review phase two's implementation but yielded no concrete progress.
Phase two, as outlined, includes deploying an international security force, establishing a technocratic governing body for Gaza under international supervision, disarming Hamas militants, and further Israeli troop withdrawals. All this is meant to be overseen by a "Board of Peace" chaired by Trump himself, though its membership remains unclear. Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair was considered a key participant but has reportedly been ruled out of leading it.
Other names floated, such as Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, raise questions about the board's priorities. Notably, this phase only addresses temporary post-conflict structures for Gaza, entirely sidestepping long-term issues like Palestinian self-determination, accountability, and justice. The plan is silent on the occupied West Bank, where violence has surged to its deadliest level since 1967.
Mounting Violations and Deep Distrust
On-the-ground mechanisms are failing. A proposed joint international command centre, based in an Israeli warehouse to monitor the ceasefire and aid, has become "something of an embarrassment" with little activity, sources report.
Concerns are escalating about the underlying motives of all parties. Diplomatic sources fear Israel is constructing a permanent buffer zone kilometres into Gaza, razing neighbourhoods and maintaining a ground presence. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated the military would never fully leave Gaza, mentioning the deployment of Nahal units, which have historically established Israeli settlements. He later walked back the comments, but Hamas cites them as a clear ceasefire violation.
There are also worries that a reconstituted version of Cogat—the Israeli military unit coordinating civilian affairs—may operate in Gaza instead of a genuinely international, Palestinian-led administration. Israel denies any such intentions, as well as allegations of ceasefire violations or genocide levelled by a UN commission.
From Israel's perspective, there is deep scepticism that Hamas has any intention of disarming or disbanding. Meanwhile, settlement expansion continues in the West Bank alongside the displacement of Palestinians.
A 20-point PDF is insufficient to solve this Gordian knot while the slaughter continues, fundamental issues are ignored, and the early phases of the deal are trampled. The urgent need now is for an immediate, serious joint effort to establish and uphold a genuine, meaningful ceasefire, paving the long road toward true peace and justice.
