Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly formulated a contingency plan to flee to Russia should the ongoing wave of national protests overwhelm his regime and its protectors, according to an intelligence source.
The Unrest Threatening a Regime
Protests have been spreading across Iran since erupting in Tehran in late December. The initial catalyst was a sharp devaluation of the Iranian rial against major currencies like the US dollar. This economic discontent has fused with public fury over soaring inflation and escalating food prices, creating a potent and sustained challenge to the establishment as the new year begins.
An intelligence source has indicated that the critical juncture for the 86-year-old leader, who has held power since 1989, would arrive if his top-tier security personnel either fail in their duty or choose to betray him. At that point, the regime's grip would be considered broken.
The Moscow Escape Plan
The source detailed that this "plan B" involves Khamenei and a very close inner circle of approximately 20 people, comprising family members and key aides. He would be accompanied by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is widely viewed as his nominated heir apparent. The group would aim to board a flight from Tehran to Moscow.
Israeli intelligence analyst Beni Sabti reinforced this assessment, stating that Moscow is the only viable destination for Khamenei, noting the leader's admiration for Vladimir Putin and a perceived cultural affinity between Iran and Russia. The plan allegedly includes gathering the regime's significant financial assets and moving them to Russia ahead of any escape.
Following in Assad's Footsteps
This strategy would see Iran's leadership mirror the actions of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia in 2024 after rebels took control of his country. It is reported that Assad transferred up to $250 million (£185 million) in Syrian assets to cover debts to Moscow, effectively plundering national wealth for his sanctuary.
The Ayatollah himself has long been accused by Western nations of using front organisations to control vast sections of the Iranian economy for the benefit of the elite. In 2021, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned two such entities—the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO) and Astan Quds Razavi (AQR)—for allegedly funnelling wealth expropriated from dissidents and minorities to the Supreme Leader and senior officials.
As protests continue to test the regime's red lines, the world watches to see if Khamenei's long rule will end with a desperate flight to an allied autocrat, taking a nation's wealth with him.
