Trump Received Blunt Risk Assessments Before Authorizing Iran Strikes
President Donald Trump was presented with stark warnings about potential American casualties and regional instability before approving military strikes against Iran, according to confidential briefings obtained by Reuters. The operation, dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" by the Pentagon, represents what analysts describe as the most perilous U.S. military engagement since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario Presented to President
A senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of internal discussions, revealed that Trump's national security team framed the planned strikes as a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The briefings reportedly balanced blunt assessments of potential American losses against the prospect of fundamentally reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics in favor of U.S. interests for generations.
Trump appeared to acknowledge these stakes during his announcement of the operation, stating "the lives of courageous American heroes may be lost" while framing the mission as necessary for future stability. "We're doing this not for now, we're doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission," the president declared in a video address.
Extensive Military Buildup Preceded Strikes
In the weeks leading to the February 28, 2026 attacks, Trump ordered a substantial military buildup across the Middle East. The planning included:
- Sustained campaign options against Iranian targets
- Potential targeting of individual Iranian officials
- Deployment of additional air defense systems
- Preparation for multiple retaliation scenarios
An Israeli official confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian were among the targets, though the effectiveness of these strikes remained unclear immediately following the operation.
Experts Warn of Dangerous Escalation Potential
Military analysts and regional experts expressed significant concern about the operation's potential consequences. Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel and Pentagon Middle East official, characterized the strikes as "a major gamble" that might not achieve their sweeping objectives.
"Iran has many more ballistic missiles that can reach U.S. bases than the U.S. has interceptors ... some Iranian weapons will get through," Shapiro warned, highlighting vulnerabilities in regional defenses despite the substantial American military presence.
Retaliation Threats and Regional Instability
Iran's Revolutionary Guards immediately threatened all U.S. bases and interests throughout the region, vowing to continue retaliation until "the enemy is decisively defeated." Experts identified multiple potential Iranian response vectors:
- Ballistic missile attacks on U.S. installations
- Drone strikes against regional targets
- Cyber warfare against critical infrastructure
- Proxy attacks through allied militias in Iraq and Syria
A second U.S. official confirmed that pre-strike briefings specifically warned about the possibility of Iranian missiles overwhelming regional air defenses and coordinated proxy attacks against American forces.
Trump's Expanding Risk Appetite
The Iran operation demonstrates a significant escalation in Trump's willingness to authorize high-stakes military actions. This follows last month's special operations raid in Venezuela to capture that country's president and June's bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities.
Nicole Grajewski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace expressed skepticism about Trump's call for Iranians to overthrow their government, noting "The Iranian opposition is pretty fragmented. It's unclear what the population is willing to do in terms of rising up."
The White House declined to comment on the confidential briefings, while the Pentagon maintained its policy of not discussing operational planning details. Both U.S. officials who provided information to Reuters insisted on anonymity due to the classified nature of the discussions.
