Prominent conservative commentator Megyn Kelly has issued a stark warning to her fellow Republicans, suggesting that the party's staunch defence of aggressive immigration enforcement could lead to significant electoral losses in the forthcoming midterm elections.
Polling Reveals Deep Public Discontent with ICE
During a recent interview on her Sirius XM radio show with Adam Corolla, Kelly highlighted concerning polling data indicating a major shift in American public opinion. The discussion centred on a YouGov survey released on January 14, conducted in the wake of the fatal shooting of 37-year-old mother-of-three Renee Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis on January 7.
The poll revealed that 53 percent of Americans believed the agent, Jonathan Ross, was not justified in the killing. The same percentage felt Ross should face criminal charges, a prospect deemed unlikely as the Trump administration maintains the agent acted in self-defence.
More broadly, the survey found that 42 percent of respondents somewhat or strongly support abolishing ICE, the agency created in March 2003 under the Homeland Security Act. Furthermore, a significant 60 percent believed ICE sometimes or often uses unnecessary force against US citizens.
Electoral Consequences for the Republican Party
Kelly connected this deteriorating public perception directly to the GOP's worsening midterm outlook. "I mean, that’s just not good," she stated bluntly regarding the polling numbers. She cautioned that Republicans risk being on the receiving end of a Democratic "blue wave" in November, driven by voter backlash against immigration tactics.
Electoral analysts appear to support her concern. House Democrats need only flip three seats to regain control, and the non-partisan Cook Political Report notes a substantial shift, with eighteen races moving into the Democratic column. Compounding the problem, President Trump's net approval rating on immigration has plummeted from plus three points in March 2025 to minus sixteen points in the latest CNN poll, putting down-ballot Republicans in a difficult defensive position.
A Warning Against Escalation and Media Narratives
Kelly partly attributed the shift to media coverage of the Minneapolis incident, which she labelled "disinformation." She drew a parallel to the public's loss of faith in police departments following the murder of George Floyd in May 2020, noting that while opinion eventually reversed, "we don't have a couple of years until the midterms."
She also issued a prescient warning about potential further escalation, suggesting things could worsen electorally if President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy troops in Minneapolis. "S***’s going to get even more real, so we’ll see," she remarked.
While the House appears increasingly vulnerable for the GOP, the Senate landscape remains more challenging for Democrats. They require a net gain of four seats to seize control. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has expressed growing confidence, telling The Washington Post, "If I had to bet money, I’d bet we take back the Senate." Key targets include Republican senators in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa, despite Trump's previous strong performance in those states.
