The political future of Sir Keir Starmer could be decided by a series of crucial elections across the United Kingdom next spring, according to a leading polling expert. Conservative peer Lord Robert Hayward has issued a stark warning of significant Labour defeats in council, Welsh, and Scottish votes scheduled for 7 May 2026.
Predicted Labour Losses Across the UK
Lord Hayward forecasts "very, very large" losses for Labour in English local elections, particularly in metropolitan areas like London, Merseyside, Greater Manchester, and Yorkshire. He suggests these traditional strongholds could see votes shift to Reform UK, the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats, and to pro-Gaza independent candidates in parts of east London.
Remarkably, the analysis indicates that even the Conservatives might gain council seats in London. Such an outcome could bolster the position of Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, whose standing has appeared more secure in recent months. However, the overall Conservative performance is said to hinge on whether elections proceed in county areas where they triumphed in 2021 but now risk major setbacks.
Constitutional Implications in Scotland and Wales
The most profound long-term consequences may stem from results in the devolved nations. In Scotland, where Labour once hoped to replace the SNP at Holyrood, the party is now predicted to face "one hell of a battering." The SNP, Scottish Greens, and Reform are all positioned to perform strongly.
The situation in Wales is complicated by electoral reform, an enlarged Senedd, and a lowered voting age to 16. Following the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are expected to gain ground at Labour's expense. Success for nationalist parties could have significant constitutional ramifications, with the SNP likely to renew calls for an independence referendum and Plaid Cymru pushing for greater Welsh devolution.
Leadership Futures at Stake
Lord Hayward, a respected Conservative peer, stated that the May elections now look set to decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, while the impact on Kemi Badenoch's leadership is less certain. He described the likely outcome as a "cacophony of winners" with no single party emerging clearly victorious on the night. Reform UK, starting from a low base, is tipped to make the most notable gains, but a clear picture may only develop days after the polls close.
These bleak predictions come after anonymous briefings from Sir Keir's allies against potential rivals made headlines in November 2025. Significant losses could therefore reignite serious questions about his position leading the Labour Party, marking a critical juncture for his premiership.
