Rayner's Political Future Hangs in the Balance
Angela Rayner's carefully orchestrated ambition to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader faces a significant geographical obstacle that could determine her political future. The former Deputy Prime Minister must first secure her parliamentary position before mounting any leadership challenge, with current polling suggesting her Ashton-under-Lyne constituency is vulnerable to Nigel Farage's Reform party.
The Constituency Conundrum
According to recent projections, Reform is predicted to win 348 seats if a general election were held tomorrow, with Labour reduced to just 161 and the Conservatives facing near-extinction with only 14 seats. Rayner's current majority of 6,791 in Ashton-under-Lyne appears increasingly precarious with Reform positioned in second place.
This electoral mathematics has sparked speculation about a potential 'chicken run' - the undignified but sometimes necessary dash by MPs to safer constituencies when their current seats become unwinnable. For Rayner, who has built her political identity around her Northern roots, this would likely involve heading south where Labour retains stronger prospects.
Southern Sanctuary Options
Labour insiders suggest Rayner has her sights set on Hove, where she recently purchased an £800,000 seaside flat. This purchase previously caused controversy when she failed to pay the correct stamp duty, leading to her departure from the Cabinet. However, it hasn't diminished her leadership aspirations.
The Hove constituency, currently represented by Business Secretary Peter Kyle, offers a much safer Labour prospect with a comfortable majority of 19,791 over the Green Party. Reform placed fourth in the last election, making it a significantly more secure option than her current Northern seat.
Sources also reveal that Rayner came close to purchasing property in Whitstable, part of the Canterbury constituency represented by independent MP Rosie Duffield. This fashionable Kent seaside resort, described as "very Corbynista/Green" by local Labour sources, would have provided another viable Southern option before the deal apparently fell through.
Wider Labour Turmoil
Rayner isn't alone in facing constituency challenges. Health Secretary Wes Streeting defends a perilously thin majority of just 528 in Ilford North, while Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is also expected to struggle in her Birmingham Ladywood seat.
The situation unfolds against a backdrop of growing Labour instability, with most MPs convinced Sir Keir Starmer's departure is a matter of when, not if. Many predict he could step down voluntarily following potentially disastrous local council elections next May, along with Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd contests.
Other potential leadership contenders include Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who tops polls among both the public and Labour members despite lacking a Commons seat, and Defence Minister Al Carns, who is increasingly touted as the party's future despite only being elected last year.
Rayner has previously insisted she would "stay and fight" in Ashton-under-Lyne and denied claims she's already offering government posts to allies who would support her leadership bid. However, Labour Party rules requiring sitting MPs to seek re-selection in their current seats before applying elsewhere could complicate any constituency switch.
