With just one week remaining until voters head to the polls for the Scottish Parliament election, political parties across Scotland are intensifying their campaigns to secure support. On May 7, Scots will elect 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), with opinion polls consistently indicating that the Scottish National Party (SNP) is poised to remain the largest party at Holyrood.
Campaigns in Full Swing
All major party manifestos have now been unveiled, and the leaders of the six main parties—the SNP, Labour, the Conservatives, the Scottish Greens, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK—have engaged in televised debates. With seven days to go until polling day, party leaders are focusing on ensuring their messages resonate with voters. This effort could prove crucial, as a poll conducted earlier in April revealed that just over two-fifths (42%) of voters might still change their minds about which party to support.
Emily Gray of Ipsos Scotland noted that the proportion of voters who could switch allegiances is "higher than we would typically see at this point in an election campaign." However, she also highlighted that "the public are much more disenchanted with all the political leaders in Scotland than they were five years ago," which could result in low voter turnout on May 7. This factor may be decisive as all parties seek to increase their representation at Holyrood.
SNP Aims for Historic Fifth Term
The SNP, now led by John Swinney, is striving for a record-breaking fifth consecutive victory in a Scottish Parliament election. The party has been in power since 2007, and all polls suggest the SNP will again emerge as the largest party once votes are counted. However, the key question is whether they can secure an overall majority, which Mr. Swinney believes is essential for advancing a second referendum on Scottish independence. The SNP has achieved an overall majority only once, in 2011 under Alex Salmond, despite winning the last four Holyrood elections.
Labour's Challenge Under Starmer's Shadow
Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar, is aiming to oust the SNP from power. However, Mr. Sarwar's prospects appear to have been hampered by the unpopularity of Sir Keir Starmer's Labour government at Westminster. Although the 2024 general election was a success for Scottish Labour—winning more seats than any other party in Scotland—Sir Keir has become an unpopular leader. In February, Mr. Sarwar even called for him to resign as Prime Minister over "mistakes" in office.
Conservatives Face Potential 'Historic Losses'
The Scottish Conservatives, under Russell Findlay, could be facing what pollsters describe as "historic losses." While the party secured 31 MSPs in both the 2016 and 2021 elections, making it the main opposition to the SNP, one poll indicates they could be reduced to just seven MSPs this time. Mr. Findlay hopes to galvanize pro-UK supporters by opposing the SNP's plans for another independence referendum. However, they risk losing votes to Reform UK, led in Scotland by former Conservative minister Lord Malcolm Offord. Polls suggest Reform UK could potentially come in second place, becoming the main opposition at Holyrood.
Greens and Lib Dems Aim for Gains
The Scottish Greens and the Liberal Democrats are also hoping to make gains. The Greens aim to return at least one MSP from each of Scotland's eight regions—a feat they have never achieved—and win a constituency seat for the first time. Key targets include Edinburgh Central, where SNP Culture Secretary Angus Robertson is standing, and Glasgow Southside, previously held by former SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon. The Liberal Democrats, who elected four MSPs last time, believe they could win ten constituency seats. Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton is targeting votes on the regional ballot, hoping to secure at least one MSP from each region under Holyrood's additional member system.
