Scottish Greens Poised for Historic Election Performance
If I were inclined to say 'I told you so,' now would be the moment. Frankly, I am that sort of person. So, to Scottish Labour and the broader political establishment: I told you so. Three months ago, I analysed the political landscape and predicted that support for the Scottish Greens was being widely underestimated. I forecast the potential for 'the largest number of Green MSPs ever' to be elected.
Economic Discontent Driving Green Surge
My intuition was rooted in the reality that many millennials are now reaching middle age during a period of economic stagnation. They are trapped on frozen salaries, burdened by student loan repayments, and effectively locked out of the housing market. The political right does not hold a monopoly on populist appeal. A significant cohort of voters entered the workforce following the global financial crisis, and their careers and living standards have since been defined by the UK economy's persistent low-productivity, low-growth, and low-wage cycle.
The Scottish Greens offer a simple narrative: blame the 'super rich' and propose that substantially raising their taxes will solve these deep-seated issues. While this message is economically questionable, it is resonating powerfully. The latest Scottish Election Survey, the final poll before May's election, shows Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay's party narrowly ahead of Labour on the regional list vote.
This lead is within the margin of error—a mere two percentage points—but it raises the alarming prospect for Anas Sarwar's Labour party of being pushed into fourth place. The outcome is not yet certain. Nine weeks is an eternity in politics; either party could gain an edge through strategic moves or lose ground through missteps. Labour could adopt bolder policies on the cost of living, while the Greens might decide to let Maggie Chapman appear more frequently on television.
Momentum and the Spectre of Sectarian Politics
Regardless, momentum currently favours the Greens. Based on current trends, I anticipate they could return MSPs in the low double digits. The Greens have additional reasons for optimism. The English Green Party's significant victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election demonstrated how combative economic rhetoric combined with ethnic sectarianism can forge a winning electoral coalition.
While demographic differences exist between Scotland and major English cities, this brand of divisive politics has clear potential to gain traction north of the border. In areas of Glasgow and Dundee, for instance, a campaign mobilising a Muslim bloc vote could deliver victory to any party willing to pursue such a strategy. Someone will inevitably be willing, whether it is the Greens or another political group.
This approach represents a toxic threat to a modern liberal democracy. Older generations may recall when the Unionist party, precursor to the Scottish Tories, was informally known as the 'Protestants Vote Here Party,' while Labour consolidated Catholic votes in west and central Scotland.The Orange versus Green divide served as a stark lesson in the narcissism of minor differences: Scottish Christians rejecting papal authority versus Scots-Irish Christians accepting it. Yet, from this doctrinal split emerged a deep and damaging sectarianism that infected everything from employment to football, taking generations to overcome.
A New, More Dangerous Sectarianism?
A new wave of sectarianism would be far more perilous. The differences would no longer be minor; they would pit starkly contrasting cultures, religions, and worldviews against each other. As Scotland becomes increasingly multicultural, 21st-century sectarianism could involve internal conflicts largely unknown to the average Scot today.
This would create abundant divisions for ambitious politicians to exploit, fostering a society ruled by fear and suspicion. Such discussions make the liberal left profoundly uncomfortable. Decades of effort in politics, civil society, and education have sought to eradicate sectarianism from public life, with significant resources dedicated to campaigns and NGOs. Traditional Orange and Green sectarianism has been largely marginalised, with its remaining adherents often viewed as backward.
However, while the professional classes are quick to condemn bigotry within the white working class, they often hesitate when opposing sectarianism might conflict with religious or ethnic minority groups. The principle of 'One Scotland, Many Cultures' should inspire greater determination to prevent new sectarian divisions. Instead, it often leads to hand-wringing and the misguided celebration of communalist politics as progressive.
Electoral Tactics and Future Challenges
Consequently, we can expect to see in Scotland the kind of divisive electioneering tactics witnessed in Gorton and Denton. Consider the Scottish Greens' Urdu-language campaign ad targeting Pakistani-heritage voters, which featured an image of Keir Starmer shaking hands with Narendra Modi, India's Hindu prime minister. The same video showed former Foreign Secretary David Lammy shaking hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The intended message was hardly subtle.
Could the Scottish Greens adopt similar strategies? Several electoral areas exist where this could be profitable, and their number will likely grow over time. If the Greens do not seize this opportunity, another party certainly will. We must not get ahead of ourselves, however. A long campaign remains, and the Greens face inherent disadvantages: many of their policies are likely to fail, and some of their members hold extreme views.
While attacking their economic policies is difficult—who would oppose free ice cream and puppies?—they can be pressured to discuss issues where their stance drastically diverges from mainstream public opinion. Prime examples include their support for allowing men into women's spaces, policies that could lead to job losses, and imposing costly heat pump installations on homeowners.
The Path Forward for the Greens
The future trajectory will largely depend on the Greens themselves and their capacity to professionalise without excessively compromising their core principles. A party aiming to expand its electoral success must scale up its operational capabilities. They also urgently need to improve their candidate selection process.
It is possible to field candidates who advocate for a return to barter economies, hold extreme views on international conflicts, and support controversial policies in schools without appearing like a doomsday cult managed by librarians. The party needs less scolding and more engagement, perhaps even admitting the occasional working-class or ethnic minority member into their ranks.
This analysis may make grim reading for opponents of the Greens, but remember: things could be worse. You could be a Green supporter. All that fervour, certainty, and idealism may lead only to bitter disappointment in a few years. Never place blind faith in politicians of any stripe; use them, as they use you, to secure the least-worst outcome for you and your family. They all come and go, mere trends in colour-coordinated rosettes. There is no point in despairing when one advances or another recedes. Politics is incurable, but it is survivable.
