A new opinion poll has projected a significant lead for the Scottish National Party in the upcoming Holyrood election, with Reform UK narrowly securing second place ahead of the Labour Party. The survey, conducted by Survation for the Diffley Partnership, indicates a dynamic political landscape as voters increasingly focus on the campaign.
Detailed Seat Projections and Voting Intentions
The poll, which surveyed 1,068 people between March 16 and 23, 2026, places the SNP ahead with 35% of the constituency vote and 32% on the regional list. This would translate to 62 seats in the Scottish Parliament, leaving the party just three seats short of an overall majority. Reform UK follows with 19% of the constituency vote and 18% on the list, projecting a return of 19 seats.
Labour trails closely behind, with 19% support in constituencies and 17% on the regional list, equating to 18 seats. The Scottish Conservatives are projected to secure 13 seats, based on 11% of the constituency vote and 13% of the list vote. The Scottish Greens are on course for 10 seats, while the Liberal Democrats would receive seven.
Leadership Popularity and Voter Engagement
John Swinney remains the most popular political leader in Scotland, despite a net favourability rating of minus 10%. In comparison, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has a rating of minus 47%, and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar stands at minus 25%. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage records a minus 31% rating in Scotland, while his Scottish leader, Lord Malcolm Offord, has a minus 15% rating, though 55% of respondents expressed no opinion of Lord Offord.
Mark Diffley, founder of the Diffley Partnership, highlighted a notable trend: the proportion of voters answering "don't know" about political leaders has decreased since February. "This indicates that engagement is increasing as the election draws nearer," he said. "At the same time, favourability has softened for almost every leader, suggesting voters are assessing leaders more critically as they tune into the campaign."
Campaign Dynamics and Party Responses
Diffley added that the dispersed support among other parties means small shifts during the campaign could significantly impact the final seat distribution. "With several weeks still to go, there remains scope for both voting intention and leader perceptions to shift further," he noted.
SNP campaign director Angus Robertson responded to the poll by stating that a Holyrood majority was "within touching distance." He emphasised, "Not only does an SNP majority unlock independence, it locks Nigel Farage out of power – be in no doubt, without an SNP majority there is always the potential for a grubby, backroom deal between the Labour Party and Reform."
A Scottish Conservative spokesman acknowledged the real chance of an SNP majority, urging voters to back the party to prevent it. "He will use that majority to push for another divisive independence referendum at the expense of every other issue that matters to Scots," the spokesman warned.
The findings underscore a highly competitive election environment, with voter attention sharpening as polling day approaches. The data suggests that while the SNP maintains a strong position, the race for second place and the potential for coalition-building remain fluid, highlighting the critical importance of every vote in shaping Scotland's political future.
