Scotland's First Minister has delivered a stark prediction about the future of the UK Prime Minister, stating he does not expect Sir Keir Starmer to still be in office by Christmas.
Election Pressure Could Spell 'End of the Road' for Labour
In an interview on Sky News's Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, John Swinney argued that the Labour Party is "absolutely toiling" and suggested that a series of crucial votes in May could dramatically alter the political landscape. He pointed to the forthcoming elections for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd on May 7, which coincide with local elections across England.
Mr Swinney suggested that poor results for Labour in these contests could be terminal for the Prime Minister's tenure. "I think that's the end of the road for Keir Starmer," he stated, envisioning a scenario where Plaid Cymru leads in Wales, the SNP holds Scotland, and Reform UK makes gains in England.
Independence Referendum Hinges on SNP Majority
The First Minister directly linked Sir Keir's potential downfall to the outcome of the Holyrood election. He confirmed that if the SNP secures a majority of 65 or more MSPs in May—a result similar to their 2011 victory—he would take it as a democratic mandate to demand a second referendum on Scottish independence.
When asked by Trevor Phillips if an SNP majority would be a "green light" for another vote, Mr Swinney replied "yes". He asserted Scotland's right to self-determination, describing the UK as an "allegedly a partnership of equals." Furthermore, he doubled down on his central prediction: "if I win a majority... I don't think Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister."
Political Rivals Hit Back at Swinney's Claims
The remarks prompted swift condemnation from opposition parties in Scotland. Scottish Labour's deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, accused Mr Swinney of having "no vision for the future" and being preoccupied with the arguments of the past. She claimed it is Mr Swinney who will be out of office, as Scottish Labour plans to end "19 years of dismal SNP government."
Rachael Hamilton, deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives, said the comments confirmed the SNP's "sole purpose for 2026 – breaking up the UK." She accused the SNP of focusing on constitutional debates instead of fixing public services and pledged her party would "fight tooth and nail" to remove the SNP from government in May.
Despite the criticism, Mr Swinney maintained that current polls in Scotland are "encouraging but not certain" for his party, which is working intensively to secure a Holyrood victory. The political stage is now set for a highly consequential election cycle this spring, with implications that could reshape governments across Britain.
