Voters' Verdict: Reform's Rise, Tory Turmoil, and Farage's Trump Problem
In focus groups conducted this week in Warrington South and Godalming and Ash, 2019 Conservative voters shared their perspectives on the escalating battle for the right in British politics. The sessions, run by the research group More in Common, highlighted a political landscape where traditional allegiances are shifting and new forces are gaining ground.
The Battle for the Right: Two Seats, Two Stories
Warrington South, a marginal constituency in the north-west just outside the so-called red wall, voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum and backed Boris Johnson in 2019, only to swing to Labour in 2024. According to More in Common's MRP modelling, it is now projected to be won comfortably by Reform UK, signalling a dramatic realignment.
In stark contrast, Godalming and Ash, an affluent commuter seat in Surrey deep within the blue wall, voted Remain and saw Jeremy Hunt narrowly hold the seat for the Conservatives in 2024, a rare bright spot for the party. These divergent seats have become central to understanding the fragmentation of the right, a dynamic thrown into sharp relief by Robert Jenrick's recent defection to Reform UK and his subsequent dismissal by the Conservatives.
Badenoch's Decisive Move and Tory Infighting
When participants were shown a clip of Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch announcing Jenrick's dismissal, the reaction was notably positive. Sarah, an admin officer from Godalming, said she was blown away, while James, an IT engineer from Warrington, described Badenoch as decisive. Many wondered why they had not seen such firm leadership from her before.
However, this approval was tempered by concerns about Conservative Party infighting. Allie remarked that while Badenoch was one to watch, the situation felt a bit risky, and James feared a return to the chaos inside the party that characterised the last government. This sentiment underscored a broader voter fatigue with internal Tory disputes.
Jenrick's 'Broken Britain' and Voter Discontent
Robert Jenrick's defection speech, in which he claimed Britain is broken, received a lukewarm reception. George, a service engineer from Warrington, felt Jenrick seemed primed or scripted, while Jenna found him not very convincing. Helen criticised his lack of substance, echoing feedback from the Conservative leadership election where voters questioned his authenticity.
On the issue of a broken Britain, views varied. In Godalming, Allie thought Jenrick was being a bit of a drama queen and sensationalist, suggesting Britain was breaking, not broken yet. Nonetheless, worries about crime, the cost of living, small boats, and government waste were prevalent. In Warrington, the mood was darker, with Derek citing the NHS, police force, and pensions as broken systems, and Valerie, a receptionist in her 70s, lamenting rising prices forcing her to work longer.
Farage's Appeal and the 'Globetrotters' Effect
Nigel Farage's leadership of Reform UK sparked mixed reactions. Valerie acknowledged, I don't like him but he stands by his convictions, with Rachel comparing him to Thatcher for his steadfastness. Even in Godalming, Jenna noted he seems more positive and proactive, inspiring a degree of faith.
The groups were largely unfazed by Reform taking in Tory defectors like Jenrick. Tom from Godalming likened them to the Globetrotters, picking the best players from other teams, while Valerie saw it as strategic cherry-picking. Accusations of racism against Farage from his school days also failed to sway opinions, with most dismissing it as unfair to judge someone by their youthful mistakes.
The Trump Problem and Starmer's Drift
A significant sticking point for many voters was Farage's association with Donald Trump. Valerie expressed fear that Trump was pushing us towards world war three, and Kerry believed he would make things 10 times worse. Matthew from Godalming called Farage a mini Trump who might lead the country down the wrong path, highlighting a top liability for Reform's leader.
Despite these divisions, both groups shared a sense that Prime Minister Keir Starmer was struggling. Allie described him as floating over it all without going very deep into anything, a perception of a leader adrift. This disillusionment, coupled with past Tory failures, is driving some voters to consider more radical options. As Derek from Warrington put it, We've tried Conservative, we've tried Labour, they didn't work. Why not try Reform? We've got nothing to lose.
The focus groups reveal a right-wing electorate fragmented between traditional conservatism and Reform's insurgent appeal, with Farage's Trump links posing a major hurdle. Yet, with Starmer perceived as ineffective, the battle for these voters remains fiercely contested and unpredictable.
