According to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population of the United Kingdom is expected to grow at a slightly slower pace than previously forecast. The ONS reported that the number of residents in the country is projected to rise from 69.3 million in 2024 to an estimated 71 million by 2034 — a figure that is 1.2 million lower than earlier predictions.
Net Migration as the Sole Driver of Growth
The ONS stated that net migration will remain the only source of population growth, contributing 2.2 million to the population over the decade. Meanwhile, natural change — the difference between births and deaths — is projected to be minus 450,000, indicating a natural decline.
Population Peaks and Regional Variations
The official statistics body calculated that the UK’s population will peak at 72.5 million in mid-2054 before beginning to fall. Regionally, England’s population is projected to peak at 62.1 million in mid-2056, Wales at 3.2 million in mid-2035, Scotland at 5.6 million in mid-2033, and Northern Ireland at 1.9 million in mid-2031.
Over the 10 years to mid-2034, England’s population is expected to grow faster than other UK nations, at 2.9 per cent. In contrast, the projected growth for Wales (1.0 per cent), Northern Ireland (0.6 per cent), and Scotland (0.3 per cent) is slower during this period.
Impact of Reduced Net Migration
The downward revision in the overall projection is primarily due to a significant decrease in net migration. The Conservative government introduced several changes to visa rules, which began implementation in spring 2024, leading to a sharp drop in net migration. The ONS now assumes net migration will continue at 230,000 per year, down from the 340,000 per year figure used in its previous calculations.
This is a developing story. More updates to follow.
