Angela Rayner's Brush with Prime Ministerial Power
This past week witnessed a political drama that nearly reshaped the British government, as Angela Rayner came perilously close to assuming the role of prime minister. The events underscore how parliamentary democracy has been subtly distorted by both major parties delegating leadership selection to their broader membership beyond Westminster's halls.
The Fragile Throne of Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer's position as Labour leader remains unusually vulnerable under current party rules. A mere one-fifth of Labour MPs—approximately 81 parliamentarians—nominating a rival candidate can trigger a full leadership election. This mechanism means that if just 80 colleagues had backed Rayner, the contest would have been thrown open to the party's membership, with potentially seismic consequences.
Starmer himself acknowledged the tumultuous week, telling the Munich Security Conference: "I ended the week much stronger than I started it and that's a good place to be." This statement subtly referenced the external observers who may not have grasped how narrowly Rayner missed becoming prime minister.
Exclusive Polling Data Reveals Membership Preferences
Survation conducted a poll of Labour members two weeks ago, commissioned by Labour List, which provides crucial insight into internal party dynamics. The survey revealed that in a direct head-to-head contest between Rayner and Starmer, members would prefer Rayner by 56 percent to 44 percent, excluding undecided voters.
When expanded to include other potential candidates, the polling becomes even more revealing. Initially, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham topped the list of preferred leaders if Starmer resigned, but as he is not an MP, he is ineligible. With Burnham excluded, Rayner emerges as the clear frontrunner, followed by Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.
Under Labour's preferential voting system, where eliminated candidates' votes are redistributed, Rayner would ultimately secure 60 percent support against Streeting's 40 percent. These figures starkly contrast with Survation's separate cabinet league table, where Miliband ranks highest due to members' favourable opinions on climate change, demonstrating that popularity does not necessarily translate to leadership aspirations.
The Parliamentary Calculus and Rayner's Challenges
What makes last week's events particularly surprising is Rayner's apparent inability to secure the necessary 80 parliamentary nominations. Given that approximately 50 Labour MPs, including the 23-strong Socialist Campaign Group, typically oppose Starmer regardless of his performance, this suggests Rayner's support among colleagues may be weaker than commonly perceived.
Nevertheless, Starmer's fragile position means the 81-nomination threshold could be triggered at any moment, making it essential to consider what a Rayner premiership might entail.
Policy Implications and Potential Cabinet Reshuffle
Conventional wisdom suggests Rayner would govern from a more left-wing position than Starmer, advocating for higher taxes and increased public spending. However, this analysis may be overly simplistic, as Starmer is already constrained by a parliamentary party whose centre of gravity leans in that direction.
The crucial question revolves around who Rayner would appoint as chancellor. Rachel Reeves, the current chancellor, has been described by one insider quoted in The Spectator as having "the only person in the cabinet with worse political antennae than Keir." Rayner would likely replace her, but not with Miliband. Her political instincts would probably lead her to balance her left-wing reputation with a fiscally conservative appointment, potentially choosing either Streeting or Defence Secretary John Healey.
Paradoxically, Rayner's left-wing credentials and perceived better judgement might enable her to steer the party toward the centre. She could possess greater credibility on welfare spending curbs than Starmer, and alongside Shabana Mahmood, deliver a socially conservative message more effectively. This duo might also demonstrate less patience with legal obstacles to immigration control policies.
Public Perception and Electoral Consequences
Rayner's significant drawback remains her unpopularity with the general public, which explains why she would be unlikely to become prime minister if MPs alone made the decision, as many argue they should. The ultimate concern for many Labour figures is whether a Rayner premiership would increase or decrease the likelihood of a Nigel Farage-led government—a question that remains open and contentious.
The events of this week reveal the delicate interplay between internal party democracy, parliamentary politics, and public opinion, highlighting how Britain's political landscape remains in constant, unpredictable flux.
