The defection of former minister Robert Jenrick to Nigel Farage's Reform UK party has, paradoxically, left Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch in a stronger position, according to senior Tory MPs. Thursday's dramatic events saw Badenoch pre-emptively sack Jenrick as shadow justice minister and remove the party whip, forcing his hand and allowing her to control the narrative.
A Calculated Move That Solidified Leadership
Badenoch's decisive action in stripping Jenrick of his roles before his official announcement was widely seen as a masterstroke. One shadow minister told reporters that the day's events had "cemented Kemi's position as a robust leader." The MP added that the brutal efficiency of the move should give pause for thought to any other Conservatives considering a similar jump to Reform.
The pre-emption left Jenrick and Reform playing catch-up, with slightly farcical scenes at their afternoon press conference. Tory sources believe Jenrick was forced into frantic last-minute changes to his defection speech after Badenoch's office obtained and tweeted extracts of it. "It showed that members – and probably the country – don't like traitors," another shadow minister remarked, noting the phrase 'good riddance' had been common among party members.
Will More MPs Follow Jenrick Before May?
The immediate question for both Badenoch and Farage is whether any more sitting Tory MPs will defect before Reform's self-imposed May deadline. While one MP frequently linked with a move has insisted they are staying put, opinions among the parliamentary party are mixed. Some believe Jenrick's departure, perceived by colleagues as blatant and cunning, has actually solidified loyalty.
"What Robert did looks really blatant and cunning. People really hate that," said the MP who had been tipped to defect. Others acknowledged the electoral threat Reform poses in their constituencies but questioned the wisdom of annoying so many colleagues. "As one of the remaining Conservative MPs, it's a privilege to help rebuild the party," one said, adding a pointed dig: "And anyway, who wants to be in the same club as Andrea Jenkyns?"
Badenoch's Standing and the Challenges Ahead
Badenoch's authority among her MPs has grown significantly since her well-received Conservative conference speech in October and a blistering response to Rachel Reeves's budget. One Conservative MP noted that at least 40 colleagues had separately praised the budget speech to them, highlighting a rare period of unity. "It's amazing how little infighting there is. We're all focused on getting [Keir] Starmer out," the MP said.
However, significant challenges remain. While the YouGov tracker shows Tory support has recently risen to around 20% from lows of 16-17%, this level is still historically poor. A disastrous result in May's local elections across Scotland, Wales, and England, even if currently factored in, could yet test the newfound cohesion.
For now, many Tory MPs are simply relieved at Jenrick's departure, which one described with delight as "like some sort of horrible arranged marriage, carried out simply to spite one side of the family." The episode has demonstrated Badenoch's willingness to act decisively against internal dissent, a quality that has bolstered her reputation as the party attempts to rebuild from a position of profound weakness.
