A palpable sense of intrigue gripped London's exclusive Carlton Club last week, the historic heart of the Conservative Party. MPs and peers gathered at a reception on January 8 were abuzz with one topic: the imminent defection of Robert Jenrick to Reform UK. The chatter suggested a deal was already sealed, with one senior Tory claiming Jenrick was poised to become Reform's first shadow chancellor.
The Leak That Ended a Career
Just six days after that Carlton Club gathering, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was handed an explosive document following Prime Minister's Questions. It was Jenrick's drafted defection speech, leaked by a disgruntled aide. The text was described as 'nuclear', designed to inflict maximum damage by predicting disastrous local elections in May and savaging colleagues Sir Mel Stride, Chris Philp, and Dame Priti Patel.
After reading it, Badenoch consulted advisers and slept on her decision. The next morning, she confirmed his dismissal. The news was delivered to the public in a pre-recorded video from her Essex home, released on social media just after 11am to coincide with a Nigel Farage press conference in Scotland. Jenrick was informed of his sacking by chief whip Dame Rebecca Harris, a move seen as a deliberate slight to the former leadership rival.
A Plan Months in the Making
The seeds of defection were sown weeks earlier. Jenrick, enraged at not being made shadow chancellor after losing the leadership to Badenoch in November 2024, had been in talks with Farage. These culminated in a dinner at the private members' club 5 Hertford Street before Christmas. His restrained public profile in recent months, a contrast to his previously ubiquitous media presence, now appears part of a calculated shift.
His plan, according to a senior party figure, was to spring a surprise during a Sunday TV interview, likely on Laura Kuenssberg's BBC show, to announce his move and leverage the top job in Reform after Farage. "But Kemi's burst his bubble and wrecked his plans," the source said.
Reform's Internal Resistance
Despite the plotting, Jenrick's welcome in Reform was not guaranteed. The party's new London mayoral candidate, Laila Cunningham, had warned he would not be welcome due to his record as immigration minister. Many in Reform's Millbank Tower offices shared this view, with Farage himself having previously called Jenrick a "fraud" over immigration policy. There were concerns that too many former Tories would "spoil the broth".
Jenrick's defection has therefore not landed him in the prime position he desired. Reform HQ was reportedly furious his speech was leaked, and his past actions continue to haunt him. His principled resignation from government in December 2023 over border control came only weeks after being passed over for Home Secretary by Rishi Sunak, leading many to question his motives.
Aftermath and Allegations
The fallout reveals deep fractures. A senior Tory figure claimed Badenoch had "gone out of her way to make it work for Robert in the shadow cabinet but he was sniping and scheming at every turn." They added Jenrick had now "entered the lion's den" at Reform, where scheming about him had already begun.
Jenrick's political ambitions, shared by his wife Michal Berkner, remain undimmed. Berkner was noted for her visible dismay at Badenoch's leadership victory and is thought to have influenced Jenrick's recent physical transformation, including use of the weight-loss drug Ozempic. As one Westminster insider put it, the fiercely ambitious Jenrick will continue his pursuit of high office, but now from the precarious benches of Reform UK.
