Labour's Gorton and Denton Defeat Signals Potential Green Party Ascendancy
The by-election humiliation in Gorton and Denton has significantly deepened the crisis surrounding Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party. More critically, this result has made it increasingly plausible that the Green Party could overtake Labour as the principal party of the left in British politics, according to analysis by John Rentoul.
Could Andy Burnham Have Altered the Outcome?
Following the announcement of Labour's disastrous third-place finish, immediate questions arose about whether Andy Burnham, the popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, could have salvaged the situation for Labour. While Burnham's local popularity might have yielded a better performance than the unsuccessful candidate Angeliki Stogia, his potential victory would have triggered a problematic by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty, a seat Labour could not confidently retain.
This strategic complexity underscores why Keir Starmer was correct to prevent Burnham from standing, irrespective of any desire to protect his own leadership position. Furthermore, the consensus among many Labour MPs is that Burnham would not represent a markedly superior prime ministerial candidate compared to Starmer.
A Catastrophic Result with Far-Reaching Implications
The Gorton and Denton by-election result was profoundly damaging for Labour. It potentially marks a pivotal moment, the beginning of the end for the party's dominance on the left, as it creates a pathway for the Greens to surpass them. While not a certainty, this previously unthinkable scenario is now a distinct possibility.
For Reform UK, the result was not catastrophic. The constituency was historically unfriendly, and Nigel Farage's selection of an outsider candidate, Matt Goodwin, was a misstep. However, the party's performance aligned with national polling trends, indicating it remains a persistent threat to established political entities.
The Green Party's Historic Victory and Shifting Rhetoric
The by-election delivered the best result ever for the Green Party. Hannah Spencer's victory speech was notable for its focus on economic inequality and critiques of wealth concentration, rather than traditional environmental messaging. This shift towards a more populist, economically-focused rhetoric—described as punk Marxist rather than merely eco-populist—signals a strategic evolution for the Greens.
Labour's Internal Paralysis and Leadership Dilemmas
Internally, Labour appears paralysed. Karl Turner, MP for Kingston upon Hull East and an admirer of Andy Burnham, expressed that he sees no viable alternative to Starmer within the parliamentary party, highlighting a profound leadership vacuum. He emphasised that Starmer, as leader, must enact Labour policy and can no longer ignore the Parliamentary Labour Party, suggesting a preference for a prime minister constrained by soft-left MPs—a position viewed as unsustainable.
The core issue is a lack of consensus on how to address Starmer's troubles, whether through policy shifts or leadership change. Calls for the party to be "more Labour" or for a "braver Labour agenda" from figures like Angela Rayner remain vague and lack substantive direction.
The Rayner Paradox and Waiting Game
An interesting paradox exists around Angela Rayner. If she were to assume leadership, her left-wing reputation and mandate from party members might actually grant her more freedom from parliamentary constraints than Starmer currently enjoys. This could allow her to rhetorically counter the Greens' populism without necessarily implementing leftward policy shifts. However, her time has not yet come, and may never arrive.
Many Labour MPs who favour replacing Starmer with either Rayner or Wes Streeting believe they must bide their time. The disaster in Gorton and Denton suggests the upcoming May local elections across Scotland, Wales, and England will be equally terrible for Labour. Potential successors would prefer Starmer remains in place to shoulder the blame for these anticipated losses.
Ultimately, while leadership is central to political fortunes, it remains uncertain whether, even after the May elections, 81 Labour MPs could be convinced that a new leader chosen by party members would constitute a sufficient improvement over the incumbent. Labour's profound internal struggles and electoral challenges may only be in their initial stages.
