Sir Keir Starmer is expected to leverage plans for closer ties with the European Union as a strategy to fend off a potential leadership challenge following Thursday's local elections, which are anticipated to be a significant setback for Labour. The prime minister is reportedly preparing a speech to be delivered shortly after the results are announced, wherein he will commit to strengthening relations with the bloc as a means to address the cost of living crisis exacerbated by the Iran war.
EU Relations as a Key Policy
According to The Times, Sir Keir will argue that the conflict has demonstrated Britain cannot afford to ignore the benefits of closer ties with Brussels, while maintaining his red lines on no return to freedom of movement or the single market. A No 10 source stated: "Building a closer relationship with the EU is crucial not just for economic growth, but also cutting the cost of living. We cannot afford to ignore this."
This development follows a revelation by The Independent earlier this year that Sir Keir intends to make Brexit the central dividing line at the next general election, as the government seeks to win back voters who have shifted to Reform UK and the Greens. After years of strained relations under the Tories, Labour believes it is the only party with a Brexit stance that aligns with public opinion.
Public Sentiment on Brexit
A decade after the referendum to leave the EU, polling indicates that a majority of voters believe Brexit is currently working and desire closer ties with the bloc. However, a majority also feel that rejoining should not be a government priority. Labour sources told The Independent in January that, after adopting a tougher stance on migration, the government sees EU relations as a clear point of distinction from opposition parties.
Expected Election Losses
Labour is bracing for historic losses in the upcoming elections, with polling expert Robert Hayward warning that the party could lose more than 75 per cent of the council seats it is defending across England. Lord Hayward, a Tory peer, predicts Labour will lose 1,850 seats, while Reform UK could gain 1,550 and the Greens 500. This outcome poses a severe threat to Sir Keir's leadership, as he faces mounting calls to resign over his handling of the Peter Mandelson scandal.
Internal Party Tensions
Labour MPs are reportedly growing frustrated with the chaos in government, with some eyeing Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner as potential successors should the election results be as damaging as expected. Backbenchers elected in 2024 are said to be drafting an open letter demanding the prime minister's resignation, reminiscent of the round-robin letter sent to Sir Tony Blair two decades ago. However, housing minister Steve Reed urged MPs to "stop this psychodrama" and warned against "doomscrolling through leaders."
Sir Keir vowed to fight for every vote on polling day but acknowledged the challenge ahead as political leaders concluded their local election campaigns. Nearly 25,000 candidates are contesting over 5,000 seats on 136 councils in England, while all 129 seats are up for election in the Scottish Parliament and 96 in the Welsh Senedd.
