Morgan McSweeney's Departure Deepens Sir Keir Starmer's Leadership Crisis
The position of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has become increasingly precarious following the sudden exit of his closest aide, Morgan McSweeney. This development comes at a time when the Labour leader is already grappling with dismal opinion poll ratings and fierce criticism over his handling of the Peter Mandelson scandal.
Sir Keir Starmer secured a landslide majority less than two years ago, yet his grip on power now appears to be slipping significantly. The departure of McSweeney, who is widely credited with masterminding that election victory, leaves the Prime Minister without his key lieutenant for the first time during his leadership tenure.
Why Is Sir Keir Starmer Facing Such Severe Jeopardy?
Poll ratings for both the Labour Party and Sir Keir personally have plummeted dramatically. Members of Parliament are looking nervously at the rising popularity of Reform UK on the right and the increasing prominence of the Greens on the left.
A series of policy missteps and U-turns on critical issues including winter fuel payments, welfare reforms, and mandatory digital identification have eroded Labour's support base. These problems have been compounded by ongoing challenges with English Channel migrant crossings and sluggish economic growth, damaging relations between Number 10 and Labour MPs.
The fallout from the decision to appoint Lord Mandelson as ambassador to the United States, his subsequent dismissal, and continuing revelations about his connections with convicted paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein have added to Labour's deepening sense of gloom and crisis.
Are Sir Keir's Days in Number 10 Truly Numbered?
The departure of chief of staff Morgan McSweeney represents a significant blow to Sir Keir's authority, which had already been severely damaged by the Mandelson controversy. Even if the Prime Minister survives the current furore, the coming weeks and months present formidable challenges.
A crucial by-election in the previously safe Labour seat of Gorton and Denton on February 26th could potentially see either the Greens or Reform UK claim victory in Greater Manchester. May's elections may witness Labour losing control in Wales for the first time, one of its traditional heartlands.
English council contests also appear difficult for the party, while in Scotland, Anas Sarwar is battling to defy the nationwide slump in Labour's popularity. A disastrous performance at the ballot box in these upcoming contests could serve as the trigger for a concerted move against Sir Keir's leadership.
How Could a Formal Leadership Challenge Actually Work?
There exists no formal confidence vote procedure to remove a Labour leader from office. Instead, any challenger to Sir Keir would require the support of eighty Members of Parliament, representing twenty percent of the party in the House of Commons, to trigger a contest.
Allies of the Prime Minister have insisted he would fight any such challenge vigorously. However, for a rival to secure that level of publicly committed support would make it incredibly difficult for Sir Keir to continue effectively as leader.
A more plausible exit route might involve Sir Keir choosing to resign voluntarily if enough senior Labour figures privately inform him they can no longer support his leadership. This scenario would avoid the public spectacle of a formal challenge while achieving the same outcome.
Potential Successors If Sir Keir Starmer Departs
Unlike Sir Tony Blair's orderly exit from Number 10, when Gordon Brown stood as the clear successor, there could be a bruising and divisive battle for the Labour leadership should Sir Keir step down.
Key potential candidates include:- Angela Rayner: The former deputy leader enjoys significant support within the party but awaits findings from an HMRC review into her failure to pay correct stamp duty on a flat purchase in Hove.
- Wes Streeting: The Health Secretary is a confident media performer with support on the party's right wing, though his barely concealed leadership ambitions have ruffled feathers in Westminster.
- Shabana Mahmood: Another candidate from the party's right, though the wider membership might favour someone closer to the left.
- Ed Miliband: The former leader and current Energy Secretary could represent the left, though his previous tenure ended in the 2015 election defeat.
- Andy Burnham: The Greater Manchester mayor's name frequently surfaces during leadership discussions, though his route back to Parliament was recently blocked.
- Al Carns: The Defence Minister and former Royal Marines colonel offers a fresh perspective but has limited parliamentary experience since entering the Commons in 2024.
- Yvette Cooper or John Healey: Political veterans like the Foreign Secretary or Defence Secretary could be turned to in an attempt to steady the party ship.
The coming weeks will prove critical in determining whether Sir Keir Starmer can weather this perfect storm of political challenges or whether Labour will be forced to confront difficult questions about its leadership direction.
