This is how I believe it will conclude. Over the weekend, Keir Starmer will experience a brief respite from the political firestorm consuming his premiership. He will remove his tie, pour a generous glass of wine, relax, and arrive at several unwelcome yet unavoidable realisations.
The First Inevitable Conclusion
The first will be that his position is now politically irrecoverable. Yesterday, he attempted to 'clarify' his explosive admission in the House of Commons that he was indeed aware Peter Mandelson had maintained his relationship with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein after Epstein's imprisonment, at the time Starmer appointed him as ambassador to Washington. That attempt ended in total disaster.
Astoundingly, Starmer claimed Mandelson had successfully deceived him by convincing him he had 'barely known' Epstein. This is despite their friendship being common knowledge across Westminster, extensively documented in the media, and specifically detailed in a vetting document compiled by civil servants and forwarded to Starmer at the time of the appointment.
Further Damaging Revelations
By that time, the Prime Minister, wine in hand, will likely already be aware of further revelations published in weekend newspapers about Epstein, Mandelson and – crucially – their connection to a hostile foreign state. These revelations will deliver another blow to Sir Keir's assertion that he possessed no objective information that could have led him to reverse Mandelson's appointment.
He will be acutely conscious that his attempt to block publication of material relating to Mandelson's appointment, on the ludicrously spurious grounds of national security, has failed. Soon, information will be published chronicling the full extent of Mandelson's involvement at the very heart of his government.
As one minister revealed: 'People don't understand. Peter wasn't just Keir's ambassador. Along with Morgan McSweeney, his chief of staff, he was basically running the entire operation. In the last reshuffle, Peter made specific appointments. And he was directly involved in selecting the first Cabinet.'
Turning to Party and Country
Then Starmer's thoughts will shift from his personal position to his party and the country at large. As noted soon after his initial election as Labour leader, Sir Keir is not, and never has been, a political creature. Someone who worked closely with him on his leadership campaign disclosed that Starmer once remarked: 'I don't really like politics. I don't understand it. And I'm not that good at it.'
The Prime Minister has never been one of those MPs who claim their mother pushed them around in a pram stuffed with Labour leaflets. The movement has never been in his DNA. When he recently made an awful, crude joke at PMQs, one colleague messaged to observe 'no one who genuinely understands the Labour Party would have said that.'
The Debt He Owes
But Starmer still understands the debt he owes the party that carried him into Downing Street, and to those who trusted him with their votes eighteen long months ago.
When it was suggested weeks ago that his blocking of Andy Burnham showed he intended to 'do a Biden' and bed-block the premiership, even if it meant leading his party to destruction, an ally phoned to say, 'You're wrong. When the time comes, Keir will know to walk away.'
Keir Starmer knows that time has now arrived. Angela Rayner has told friends she is moving. Wes Streeting is teetering on the edge of resignation, calculating whether to get out ahead of a scandal that may consume him, given his own friendship with Mandelson. Burnham is reportedly considering kicking down the door to Westminster by making a move for the safe seat of Bootle.
The Gathering Storm
So, while it may take a short time for the pretenders to gather their supporters and unsheathe their blades, Starmer knows they are about to make their move. And that, when they do, there will be no one to stand in their way.
Over the past forty-eight hours, his MPs have decisively turned their backs on him. Meanwhile, his Cabinet colleagues have disowned him. With the exception of the hapless housing minister Steve Reed, not a single one came to his defence following Wednesday's disastrous PMQs performance.
The Decisive Voice
But there is one voice above all others that will convince Keir Starmer to do the decent thing. His own.
No one has been more critical of our Prime Minister during the past torturous and disastrous months than this observer. But I genuinely believe that, deep down, Keir Starmer is a decent man. And that, when he looks back over the grotesque spectacle of this week's attempt to justify and legitimise his appointment of Mandelson – and by extension Mandelson's toxic relationship with one of the world's most notorious paedophiles – shame will overcome ambition.
In the wake of his catastrophic performance at yesterday's press conference, I would not be surprised if, in the next few days, the Prime Minister announces his resignation.
The Final Reckoning
But if he does try to stagger on, that attempt will reach its denouement on February 26, when Labour loses the Gorton and Denton by-election. At that moment, Keir Starmer will know for certain he is leading his party to damnation and opening the door to Nigel Farage and a Reform government. And at that moment, he will step aside.
I may be wrong in my assessment of the Prime Minister's character. The long, lonely nights in Downing Street may have robbed him of the last vestiges of his dignity and self-respect. In which case, he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming from the building by his colleagues.
A Chance for Honour
But I genuinely believe it will not have to come to that. The Mandelson scandal will represent a squalid and sordid end to his premiership. But if he opts to leave in a manner and on a timetable of his own choosing, he will be seen to have ultimately ended things honourably.
And I think he will want that to be his epitaph. The man who came into power with the lofty – if frequently self-indulgent – ambition of restoring public faith in politics has manifestly failed in his task. But as a wise man once observed, all political careers end in failure. And there is no humiliation in that.
Whereas Starmer will be humiliated if he tries to cling to office when it is palpably obvious that he has now completely lost the confidence of his colleagues and the electorate.
Keir Starmer has been a disastrous Prime Minister. But he has the opportunity to show that in the final reckoning, he was prepared to put his country first. At some point in the coming days, I expect him to grasp it.
