Liberal MPs are set to convene in Canberra on Tuesday morning for their first face-to-face party room meeting since the Coalition split plunged Opposition Leader Sussan Ley's position into jeopardy. The gathering, scheduled for 9am at the start of two weeks of parliamentary sittings, is anticipated to be highly charged, yet Ley is expected to avoid a snap leadership challenge from rival Angus Taylor.
Coalition Split Fuels Leadership Speculation
The meeting follows almost a fortnight of intense speculation about Ley's leadership, triggered by the split with the Nationals over Labor's hate speech laws. This internal chaos has left Liberal MPs across factions acknowledging the situation as unpredictable, though most do not expect a formal motion to spill the leadership to be moved at this session.
Talks with Nationals Signal Potential Reunion
In a move to stabilise the Coalition, Ley held talks with Nationals leader David Littleproud on Monday night, marking the first step towards a potential reunion. This development adds a layer of complexity to the leadership dynamics, as Ley and her allies are keen to shift the political spotlight away from internal disputes and onto the performance of the Albanese government.
Taylor's Position and Factional Dynamics
Angus Taylor, the shadow defence minister, is seen as the primary right faction contender after Andrew Hastie ruled himself out of the leadership race. Liberal MPs widely believe it is only a matter of time before Taylor challenges Ley, with sources indicating that if a vote were held today, only one or two voters would separate the two.
However, Taylor is bound to support Ley as a member of the shadow cabinet, meaning he would need to resign from the frontbench to move or even back a spill motion. This constraint adds a tactical hurdle to any immediate challenge.
Shadow Cabinet Unity Under Scrutiny
Senior right-wing figures Jonno Duniam and James Paterson, who were present at secret leadership talks between Hastie and Taylor in Melbourne last week, remain in the shadow cabinet. Their continued presence underscores the delicate balance within the party, as Ley seeks to maintain unity while navigating the fallout from the Coalition split.
The meeting coincides with heightened economic focus, as the Reserve Bank is widely tipped to lift interest rates on Tuesday, providing Ley an opportunity to pivot the conversation towards government accountability. Despite the charged atmosphere, the immediate expectation is that Ley will weather this initial gathering without a direct challenge, buying time to consolidate her position and mend Coalition relations.
