Aston Villa's remarkable ascent to the upper echelons of the Premier League is being spearheaded by the scintillating form of forward Morgan Rogers. His match-winning double against Manchester United on Sunday secured a tenth consecutive victory for Unai Emery's side, a run that has propelled them to within three points of leaders Arsenal.
From Sideline Rebuke to Title Talk
The contrast from two months ago could not be starker. In October, Rogers was on the receiving end of a volcanic touchline reaction from manager Unai Emery during a frustrating draw at Sunderland. Villa were six games without a win, and Rogers' place was under scrutiny. Fast forward to the present, and Emery's eruptions are now solely of joy, as evidenced when he ripped off his coat in celebration of Rogers' second goal against United.
Having failed to win any of their first six league games this season, Villa's current ten-match winning streak defies recent history and pre-season expectations. The question now hanging over Villa Park is whether this constitutes a genuine title challenge.
The Rogers Factor: A Golden Spell
The engine of this surge is undoubtedly Morgan Rogers. The England international is in a rich vein of form where every chance seems destined for the net. His first goal against United was a masterpiece, arcing a shot from the corner of the box just inside the far post. The second was a similarly crisp finish from an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
This pattern has defined Villa's recent successes. At Leeds, at West Ham, and now against Manchester United, the team has traded blows before relying on Rogers' lethal right foot to decide the contest. His finishing has drawn comparisons to legendary wingers like Arjen Robben; opponents know what's coming, but currently seem powerless to stop it.
Statistical Reality Check
Despite the impressive results, underlying data suggests Villa's charge is built on fine margins. In only two games during this ten-match run have Villa posted an expected goals (xG) advantage greater than 0.5 over their opponents. They have conceded in nine of those ten wins, with eight victories secured by a single goal. Against United, the visitors had more shots and more shots on target.
This points to a potential vulnerability. The team's policy of engaging in open contests and relying on Rogers' brilliance is high-risk. Regression to the mean—where results begin to align more closely with performance data—looms as perhaps Villa's biggest rival in the coming weeks.
Can the Charge Be Sustained?
Logic and football history suggest maintaining this pace will be immensely challenging. The return of key defenders like Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres from injury could solidify a sometimes-shaky backline. A return to scoring form for Ollie Watkins would also spread the goal burden.
For now, the focus remains on Rogers, whose rise has been meteoric. From a peripheral figure in the autumn to an indispensable force and a serious contender for a starting role with England at next summer's World Cup, his story mirrors Villa's own unexpected journey. As he conducted the Holte End's cheers at full-time, the moment was to be savoured. These golden spells are rare in football, and for Aston Villa and Morgan Rogers, the challenge is to make this dream run last as long as possible.
