Global weather forecasters are predicting the strongest El Niño in a decade, set to build in late 2026, bringing hotter and drier conditions to much of Asia while boosting rains across parts of North and South America. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of a high likelihood of El Niño conditions developing between May and July this year, with potential impacts on global temperatures and rainfall patterns.
Forecasters Predict Early Onset
The WMO's Chief of Climate Prediction, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, stated that climate models are now strongly aligned, indicating high confidence in the onset of El Niño followed by further intensification. Meteorologist Chris Hyde of Meteomatics noted that similar signals were last seen during the severe 2015 to 2016 El Niño. Japan's weather bureau estimates a 70% chance of El Niño emerging during the northern hemisphere summer, while Indian authorities warn of a below-average monsoon. China expects El Niño conditions from May through the end of the year, and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center sees a 61% chance for May to July.
Impacts on Agriculture
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts below-median rains in eastern cropping regions from May to August. Weather models indicate below-normal rains and above-normal temperatures across Australia, Southeast Asia, and India. However, Chris Hyde suggests ideal growing conditions across the U.S. Midwest this year, though timing of El Niño could affect excessive moisture towards harvest. In Europe, heavy summer rains could benefit corn, but European wheat harvests would have already begun. High fertiliser costs due to Middle East conflict may compound yield losses if farmers avoid using expensive fertiliser on poor crops.
Understanding El Niño and La Niña
El Niño is a natural pattern of unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, occurring every three to five years on average. It builds when shifts in atmospheric pressure weaken easterly trade winds, allowing warm water to move eastward and alter global weather. La Niña, its opposite, forms when trade winds strengthen, pushing warm water west and allowing cooler water to upwell, often bringing above-average rainfall to Australia and parts of Southeast Asia but variable impacts on the Indian monsoon. In the Americas, La Niña tends to bring wetter conditions in northern South America and drier conditions in the southern U.S.
Previous El Niño Events
A strong El Niño in 2015-2016 caused severe drought across Australia and Southeast Asia, weakened the Indian monsoon, and reduced grain, palm oil, and sugar output, while excessive rain in South America disrupted soybean and corn harvests. A moderate El Niño in 2009-2010 brought dry weather that reduced rice and wheat yields in India and Southeast Asia. The strongest on record in 1997-1998 caused drought in parts of Asia and flooding in the Americas. The most recent strong La Niña lasted from 2020 to 2023.
Risks for Europe and the United States
An El Niño could dump more rain on Europe and the United States, especially during the U.S. corn and soybean harvest. While heavier rains in the Americas can offset some agricultural losses in Asia, excessive rainfall and floods can disrupt harvests and degrade grain quality. In Europe, heavy summer rains could be favourable for corn, but wheat harvests would have already begun. Farmers also face the spectre of fertiliser scarcity due to Middle East conflict affecting petrochemical supplies, potentially leading to a vicious cycle of high costs and low rainfall discouraging fertiliser use, compounding yield losses.
