The former head of the UK's independent budget forecaster has publicly defended the body's reputation, insisting it retains the public's trust despite the major error that led to his resignation.
Resignation and Apology Over Premature Publication
Richard Hughes stepped down as chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in December 2025 following the mistaken early release of its economic forecasts. The leak occurred just before Chancellor Rachel Reeves was due to deliver her autumn budget statement to Parliament.
Appearing before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday 13 January 2026, Hughes reiterated his apology for the incident. He acknowledged the significant disruption caused, stating it interfered with one of the key events in the parliamentary calendar and also moved financial markets.
'Human Beings Make Mistakes'
Despite the serious error, Hughes was steadfast in his support for the OBR's fundamental role. He asserted the watchdog had "earned people's trust as the country's economic and fiscal forecaster." He framed the mistake within a human context, telling peers that "The OBR is led by human beings and human beings make mistakes."
His defence comes amid political debate about the OBR's future. Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride recently pledged that a Conservative government would protect the body, describing it as essential to stop chancellors from "marking their own homework." Conversely, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has suggested he might scrap the institution if his party came to power.
Unprecedented Speculation Before Fiscal Event
Hughes provided new context for the period leading up to the leak, highlighting an extraordinary atmosphere of speculation. He told the committee that the level of conjecture before the autumn budget was the most intense and persistent he had witnessed in his entire 25-year career in UK fiscal policymaking.
He also used the hearing to directly counter a specific claim circulating at the time. Hughes stated it was not "remotely true" that last-minute changes to the OBR's forecast prompted the government to abandon plans for an income tax rise. This aligns with widespread reports that Chancellor Reeves decided against the tax increase after receiving better-than-expected economic forecasts, thereby allowing the Labour government to keep its manifesto pledge not to raise taxes on "working people."
The OBR has faced sustained scrutiny since the accidental publication, which revealed key details of the government's budget plans before they were officially announced by the Chancellor.
