Food prices in the United Kingdom are on course to have risen by a staggering 50 per cent in just five years, according to new analysis. This grim milestone, expected to be reached in November, matches the price rises in food seen in the 20 years prior to 2021, the start of the cost-of-living crisis.
Factors Behind the Surge
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think-tank has identified several key drivers. Extreme weather events caused by climate change, global supply disruptions, and exposure to volatile oil and gas markets have compounded pressures on the food system. Staples such as pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, eggs, and beef have seen increases between 50 per cent and 64 per cent, while olive oil has soared by 113 per cent. These items are particularly sensitive to oil and gas prices and synthetic fertiliser costs.
Impact on Households
These forces pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, with energy shocks accounting for £244 of that increase. The cost of butter, milk, beef, chocolate, and coffee has risen four times faster than other food and drink categories.
Expert Commentary
Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, warned: 'Trump's war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Nino effect. Three of England's worst harvests on record have been in the past five years.'
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, expressed deep concern: 'The projected 50 per cent price rise leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate. When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises – piling pressure on the NHS. The question for Government isn't just how to respond to this crisis, it's whether we're going to build a food system resilient enough to withstand the next one.'
